ChampionshipDerby vs Wrexham Double Chance
Part of a bigger picture: see the full match page, where this comes from.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Home or Away at 73.4%, its strongest read on the Double Chance market. For context, Derby are favoured at 42.2%, a competitive game that shapes how this market plays out. Their last 2 meetings have averaged 2.5 goals a game. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Double Chance
Draw no bet
Draw no bet means a draw gives you your stake back. So we take the draw out and share what is left between the two sides.
Winning margin
| Margin | Probability |
|---|---|
| Derby by 1 | 21.3% |
| Derby by 2 | 12.8% |
| Derby by 3+ | 8.2% |
| Wrexham by 1 | 17.7% |
| Wrexham by 2 | 9.0% |
| Wrexham by 3+ | 4.5% |
| Draw | 26.6% |
Goal handicap
| Derby line | Derby | Wrexham |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 21.0% | 79.1% |
| -0.5 | 42.2% | 57.8% |
| +0.5 | 68.8% | 31.2% |
| +1.5 | 86.6% | 13.5% |
This season (2026/27)
0.9Derby goals scored per game1.8Derby goals conceded per game1.1Wrexham goals scored per game1.5Wrexham goals conceded per gameTwo of three outcomes covered, lower odds, higher strike rate. The highest-probability cover is Derby or Wrexham on the model numbers.
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
55.7%Both Teams to Score51.4%Over 2.5 goalsOn the result, Derby are favoured at 42.2%. How the game flows often matters more here than the pre-match favourite.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Form & head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Derby 0 · 1 draws · Wrexham 1 · 2.5 goals/game.
FAQ
What is the most likely double chance in Derby vs Wrexham?
Home or Away is the highest-probability double chance for Derby vs Wrexham at 73.4%.
What is the draw no bet probability in Derby vs Wrexham?
With the draw taken out, the model rates Derby at 57.5% and Wrexham at 42.5%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Double Chance accuracy
How our Double Chance calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 40,221 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Double Chance actually happened 73.4% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 22 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Double Chance calls
Our most recent Double Chance calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Championship, Double Chance
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
