ChampionshipDerby vs Wrexham Over / Under 2.5 Goals
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 2.5 goals at 51.4%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. It is driven by both attacks and defences: Derby have averaged 0.8 scored and 1.4 conceded, Wrexham 1.2 and 1.6 over their recent games. That fits a balanced goals environment: 51.4% for over 2.5 and 76.3% for at least two goals. Their last 2 meetings have averaged 2.5 goals a game. Derby have gone over 2.5 in 2 of their last 5, Wrexham in 3 of 5. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 92.9% | 7.1% |
| 1.5 goals | 76.3% | 23.7% |
| 2.5 goals | 51.4% | 48.6% |
| 3.5 goals | 29.3% | 70.7% |
| 4.5 goals | 14.2% | 85.8% |
| 5.5 goals | 5.9% | 94.1% |
Team goal lines
77.4%
43.8%
18.8%
71.2%
35.4%
13.1%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 72.9% | 27.1% |
| 1.5 goals | 37.6% | 62.4% |
| 2.5 goals | 14.5% | 85.6% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 77.2% | 22.8% |
| 1.5 goals | 43.5% | 56.5% |
| 2.5 goals | 18.6% | 81.4% |
This season (2026/27)
0.9Derby goals scored per game1.8Derby goals conceded per game62.5%Derby Over 2.5 rate0.5Derby 1st-half goals per game1.1Wrexham goals scored per game1.5Wrexham goals conceded per game50.0%Wrexham Over 2.5 rate0.5Wrexham 1st-half goals per gameGoals distribution
How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.
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5+
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
55.7%Both Teams to Score51.4%Over 2.5 goalsFor the goal environment, the model sees 51.4% for three or more goals and 76.3% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With Derby favoured at 42.2%, a close contest often produces chances at both ends.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Derby to win. See the full prediction →
Form & head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Derby 0 · 1 draws · Wrexham 1 · 2.5 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Derby vs Wrexham?
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 51.4% for Derby vs Wrexham.
Will there be a first-half goal in Derby vs Wrexham?
The model rates at least one goal before half-time at 72.9%.
How often have Derby gone over 2.5 recently?
Derby have gone over 2.5 in 2 of their last 5, Wrexham in 3 of 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 18,322 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 54.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 23 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
Our most recent Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Championship, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
