ChampionshipDerby vs Wrexham Both Teams to Score
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Both teams to score · Yes at 55.7%, its strongest read on the Both Teams to Score market. The goals picture is built on form: Derby have averaged 0.8 scored and 1.4 conceded, Wrexham 1.2 and 1.6 over their recent games. That fits a balanced goals environment: 51.4% for over 2.5 and 76.3% for at least two goals. Their last 2 meetings have averaged 2.5 goals a game. Derby have seen both teams score in 2 of their last 5, Wrexham in 2 of 5. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Both Teams to Score
Recent scoring & conceding (per game)
0.8
1.4
1.2
1.6
Each team to score
By half
This season (2026/27)
50.0%Derby BTTS rate12.5%Derby clean sheets
0.9Derby goals scored per game62.5%Wrexham BTTS rate25.0%Wrexham clean sheets1.1Wrexham goals scored per gameGoals distribution
How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.
0
1
2
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4
5+
In-depth analysis
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
55.7%Both Teams to Score51.4%Over 2.5 goalsLooking at totals, the model sees 51.4% for three or more goals and 76.3% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. Given Derby favoured at 42.2%, a close contest often produces chances at both ends.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Derby to win. See the full prediction →
Form & head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Derby 0 · 1 draws · Wrexham 1 · 2.5 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will both teams score in Derby vs Wrexham?
Our calibrated model rates Both Teams to Score at 55.7% for Derby vs Wrexham.
Will Derby score against Wrexham?
The model rates Derby to score at 77.4% and Wrexham to score at 71.2%.
How often have Derby seen both teams score recently?
Derby have seen both teams score in 2 of their last 5, Wrexham in 2 of 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Both Teams to Score accuracy
How our Both Teams to Score calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 26,755 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Both Teams to Score actually happened 53.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 22 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Both Teams to Score calls
Our most recent Both Teams to Score calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Championship, Both Teams to Score
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
