AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 13 Oct 2026

League Two
Crawley TownCrawley TownLDLLL
Full time2-2Sat, 10 Oct 202610/1015:00UK
ChesterfieldChesterfieldDWWLW

Crawley Town 2-2 Chesterfield cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined59.4%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined40.7%

Result

Crawley Town2-2Chesterfield
7 yellow cardsCrawley Town 3, Chesterfield 4
0 red cardsCrawley Town 0, Chesterfield 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 59.4% and it landed (7 in the match). We called No at 83.5% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

A moderate lean, nothing emphatic.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Moderate

Over 3.5 cards59.4%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Ben Atkinson

Recorded match referee.

Ben Atkinson in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 32 4
Goals 3.16 Not available
Yellow cards 4.28 Not available
Red cards 0.28 Not available
Corners 10.8 Not available
Fouls 22.3 Not available
Both teams scored 53% Not available
Over 2.5 goals 59% Not available
Home wins 47% Not available
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
20 Oct 2026 Barnet vs Swindon 1-3 4 Yes 1 0 14 13
17 Oct 2026 Colchester vs Exeter 0-0 0 No 4 0 7 27
10 Oct 2026 Crawley Town vs Chesterfield 2-2 4 Yes 7 0 8 22
5 Sep 2026 Salford vs Port Vale 1-0 1 No 3 0 12 29
27 Jan 2026 Colchester vs Grimsby 0-1 1 No 4 1 13 27
26 Dec 2025 Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon 1-0 1 No 3 0 13 18
22 Nov 2025 Gillingham vs Barnet 1-1 2 Yes 7 0 9 27
8 Nov 2025 Newport County vs Walsall 2-4 6 Yes 6 0 9 24
18 Oct 2025 Shrewsbury vs Crawley Town 1-0 1 No 6 1 12 29
20 Sep 2025 Barnet vs Grimsby 3-0 3 No 2 0 13 15

Ben Atkinson referee stats

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Crawley Town vs Chesterfield. The model leans toward Crawley Town for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 78.2% 21.8%
3.5 cards 59.4% 40.7%
4.5 cards 39.9% 60.1%
5.5 cards 23.7% 76.3%

Who picks up more cards

Crawley Town
40.8%
Level
20.3%
Chesterfield
38.9%

Team cards lines

Crawley Town

Over 1.5
61.9%
Over 2.5
34.9%

Chesterfield

Over 1.5
60.6%
Over 2.5
33.5%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Crawley Town's; Chesterfield gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Crawley Town line Crawley Town Chesterfield
-1.5 23.0% 77.0%
-0.5 40.8% 59.2%
+0.5 61.1% 38.9%
+1.5 78.6% 21.5%

Red card

Any red card16.5%
Crawley Town red card7.6%
Chesterfield red card9.6%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 69.2% 30.8%
22.5 fouls 54.2% 45.8%
24.5 fouls 39.0% 61.0%
Crawley TownCrawley Town

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Crawley Town at home and Chesterfield away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

ChesterfieldChesterfield
Statistic
Crawley Town
Chesterfield
Cards per game at this venue
3.7
1.8

Opponent cards per game at this venue
4.0
2.5

Yellow cards per game
3.0
1.8

Red cards this season
2
0

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 59.4%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 78.2% for over 2.5 to 23.7% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 59.4%. On the card count, Crawley Town are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 40.8%, with a level count at 20.3%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

By team, Crawley Town over 1.5 cards sits at 61.9% and Chesterfield at 60.6%. A red card for either side is rated at 16.5% (Crawley Town 7.6%, Chesterfield 9.6%). This season Crawley Town have averaged 3.3 cards a game and Chesterfield 1.8.

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

59.4%Over 3.5 cards
16.5%Any red card
40.8%Most cards: Crawley Town
61.9%Crawley Town over 1.5 cards
60.6%Chesterfield over 1.5 cards
54.2%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 59.4% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 16.5%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianCrawley Town are the pick to collect more cards at 40.8%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 59.4%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
Crawley TownCrawley Town

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

ChesterfieldChesterfield
Statistic
Crawley Town
Chesterfield
cards per game
3.3
1.8

fouls per game
10.0
10.2

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Crawley Town vs Chesterfield?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 59.4% for Crawley Town vs Chesterfield.
Will there be a red card in Crawley Town vs Chesterfield?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 16.5%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Crawley Town vs Chesterfield?
Before kickoff, the model rated Crawley Town to pick up more cards at 40.8%, with a level count at 20.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

League TwoCrawley Town fixtures and statsChesterfield fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.