AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Segunda División
CordobaCordobaWLWLW
Full time2-0Sat, 24 Oct 202624/1013:00UK
EibarEibarWWWLD

Cordoba 2-0 Eibar cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined76.6%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined23.4%

Result

Cordoba2-0Eibar
7 yellow cardsCordoba 5, Eibar 2
0 red cardsCordoba 0, Eibar 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 76.6% and it landed (7 in the match). We called No at 76.5% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

A clear lean on the model's numbers.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Strong

Over 3.5 cards76.6%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Cordoba vs Eibar. The model leans toward Eibar for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 89.3% 10.7%
3.5 cards 76.6% 23.4%
4.5 cards 59.9% 40.1%
5.5 cards 42.4% 57.6%

Who picks up more cards

Cordoba
40.0%
Level
17.9%
Eibar
42.1%

Team cards lines

Cordoba

Over 1.5
73.0%
Over 2.5
47.8%

Eibar

Over 1.5
74.1%
Over 2.5
49.3%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Cordoba's; Eibar gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Cordoba line Cordoba Eibar
-1.5 24.1% 75.9%
-0.5 40.0% 60.0%
+0.5 58.0% 42.1%
+1.5 74.2% 25.8%

Red card

Any red card23.5%
Cordoba red card7.8%
Eibar red card17.0%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 85.6% 14.4%
22.5 fouls 75.7% 24.3%
24.5 fouls 63.6% 36.4%

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 8,516 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Cards actually happened 73.2% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 76.6%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 89.3% for over 2.5 to 42.4% for over 5.5, with over 5.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 42.4%. Head to head on cards, Eibar are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 42.1%, with a level count at 17.9%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Cordoba over 1.5 cards sits at 73.0% and Eibar at 74.1%. A red card for either side is rated at 23.5% (Cordoba 7.8%, Eibar 17.0%).

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.

76.6%Over 3.5 cards
23.5%Any red card
42.1%Most cards: Eibar
73.0%Cordoba over 1.5 cards
74.1%Eibar over 1.5 cards
75.7%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 76.6% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 23.5%, high enough to matter for the team lines.
The DisciplinarianEibar are the pick to collect more cards at 42.1%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 5.5 cards: over sits at 42.4%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.

FAQ

How many cards in Cordoba vs Eibar?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 76.6% for Cordoba vs Eibar.
Will there be a red card in Cordoba vs Eibar?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 23.5%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Cordoba vs Eibar?
Before kickoff, the model rated Eibar to pick up more cards at 42.1%, with a level count at 17.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

Segunda DivisiónCordoba fixtures and statsEibar fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.