Club Brugge 3-2 Sint-Truiden cards: our prediction vs the result
Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.
Result
Club Brugge3-2St Truiden
We called Under 3.5 at 53.9% and it landed (3 in the match). We called No at 85.0% and it missed (1 in the match).
Model read
Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.
Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.
Conviction: Lean
Over 3.5 cards46.1%
Match referee
The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.
Recorded match referee.
| Per match | All matches | 2026/27 |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 28 | 6 |
| Goals | 2.46 | 2.50 |
| Yellow cards | 4.14 | 4.00 |
| Red cards | 0.29 | 0.50 |
| Corners | 9.5 | 9.5 |
| Fouls | 23.0 | 21.3 |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% | 33% |
| Home wins | 46% | 50% |
| Date | Match | Score | Goals | BTTS | Yellow | Red | Corners | Fouls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Oct 2026 | Club Brugge vs St Truiden | 3-2 | 5 | Yes | 4 | 1 | 8 | 14 |
| 11 Oct 2026 | St. Gilloise vs Oud-Heverlee Leuven | 1-1 | 2 | Yes | 3 | 1 | 13 | 22 |
| 13 Sep 2026 | Genk vs Gent | 1-1 | 2 | Yes | 7 | 0 | 13 | 18 |
| 2 Sep 2026 | St Truiden vs St. Gilloise | 0-3 | 3 | No | 5 | 0 | 4 | 24 |
| 21 Aug 2026 | Standard vs RAAL La Louviere | 2-0 | 2 | No | 4 | 1 | 6 | 26 |
| 16 Aug 2026 | Beveren vs Anderlecht | 1-0 | 1 | No | 1 | 0 | 13 | 24 |
| 10 May 2026 | Gent vs Anderlecht | 1-1 | 2 | Yes | 8 | 1 | 6 | 25 |
| 21 Apr 2026 | Standard vs Antwerp | 1-2 | 3 | Yes | 3 | 0 | 10 | 25 |
| 5 Apr 2026 | Westerlo vs Charleroi | 2-0 | 2 | No | 4 | 1 | 10 | 24 |
| 22 Mar 2026 | RAAL La Louviere vs Genk | 5-5 | 10 | Yes | 3 | 0 | 13 | 19 |
Cards (bookings)
Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.
Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Club Brugge vs St Truiden. The model leans toward St Truiden for the most cards.
Total cards
Both teams combined.
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 67.5% | 32.5% |
| 3.5 cards | 46.1% | 53.9% |
| 4.5 cards | 27.5% | 72.5% |
| 5.5 cards | 14.5% | 85.5% |
Who picks up more cards
Club BruggeSt TruidenTeam cards lines
Club Brugge
St Truiden
Card handicap
The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Club Brugge's; St Truiden gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.
| Club Brugge line | Club Brugge | St Truiden |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 11.9% | 88.1% |
| -0.5 | 26.7% | 73.3% |
| +0.5 | 47.8% | 52.2% |
| +1.5 | 69.0% | 31.0% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 47.9% | 52.1% |
| 22.5 fouls | 33.4% | 66.6% |
| 24.5 fouls | 21.4% | 78.6% |
Recent referees
The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.
| Team | Referee | Games | Cards/g | Team cards/g |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Brugge | N. Laforge | 2 | 3.5 | 1.5 |
Swipe to see all referee stats →
Card trends
2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Club Brugge at home and St Truiden away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.
Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 10,293 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 46.1%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 67.5% for over 2.5 to 14.5% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 46.1%. On the card count, St Truiden are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 52.2%, with a level count at 21.1%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.
In-depth analysis
Split by side, Club Brugge over 1.5 cards sits at 41.7% and St Truiden at 60.8%. A red card for either side is rated at 15.0% (Club Brugge 7.0%, St Truiden 8.6%). Club Brugge’s most frequent referee this season, N. Laforge, has averaged 3.5 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
This season
2026/27 · Recorded results.
Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.
FAQ
How many cards in Club Brugge vs St Truiden?
Will there be a red card in Club Brugge vs St Truiden?
Which team will pick up more cards in Club Brugge vs St Truiden?
How is this probability calculated?
Is this a betting tip?
More Pro League, Cards
Related
Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
