AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Ligue 2
ClermontClermontDDDLD
Full time0-2Fri, 23 Oct 202623/1019:00UK
GuingampGuingampDWLLL

Clermont 0-2 Guingamp cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined50.6%
Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined49.5%

Result

Clermont0-2Guingamp
2 yellow cardsClermont 0, Guingamp 2
0 red cardsClermont 0, Guingamp 0
Under 3.5No

We called Under 3.5 at 50.6% and it landed (2 in the match). We called No at 83.0% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards49.5%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Karim Abed

Recorded match referee.

Karim Abed in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 22 5
Goals 2.09 2.60
Yellow cards 3.14 2.80
Red cards 0.23 0.40
Corners 8.9 7.2
Fouls 25.5 31.6
Both teams scored 41% 40%
Over 2.5 goals 41% 60%
Home wins 36% 20%
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
23 Oct 2026 Clermont vs Guingamp 0-2 2 No 2 0 6 29
9 Oct 2026 Pau FC vs Laval 3-2 5 Yes 4 1 8 39
19 Sep 2026 Boulogne vs Nantes 1-2 3 Yes 2 1 7 32
28 Aug 2026 Laval vs Grenoble 0-3 3 No 5 0 8 27
8 Aug 2026 Boulogne vs Nancy 0-0 0 No 1 0 7 31
9 May 2026 Grenoble vs Troyes 1-0 1 No 1 0 12 16
17 Apr 2026 Pau FC vs Guingamp 2-1 3 Yes 5 0 8 23
20 Mar 2026 Rodez vs Bastia 1-1 2 Yes 3 0 11 19
6 Mar 2026 Boulogne vs Amiens 4-2 6 Yes 5 1 11 27
13 Feb 2026 Laval vs Annecy 2-2 4 Yes 4 0 10 22

Karim Abed referee stats

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Clermont vs Guingamp. The model leans toward Guingamp for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 70.5% 29.5%
3.5 cards 49.5% 50.6%
4.5 cards 30.2% 69.8%
5.5 cards 16.2% 83.8%

Who picks up more cards

Clermont
36.1%
Level
21.7%
Guingamp
42.2%

Team cards lines

Clermont

Over 1.5
52.1%
Over 2.5
25.5%

Guingamp

Over 1.5
56.6%
Over 2.5
29.6%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Clermont's; Guingamp gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Clermont line Clermont Guingamp
-1.5 18.4% 81.6%
-0.5 36.1% 63.9%
+0.5 57.8% 42.2%
+1.5 77.0% 23.0%

Red card

Any red card17.0%
Clermont red card8.7%
Guingamp red card9.1%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 90.4% 9.6%
22.5 fouls 82.2% 17.8%
24.5 fouls 71.0% 29.0%

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 10,293 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 49.5%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 70.5% for over 2.5 to 16.2% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 49.5%. On the card count, Guingamp are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 42.2%, with a level count at 21.7%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Clermont over 1.5 cards sits at 52.1% and Guingamp at 56.6%. A red card for either side is rated at 17.0% (Clermont 8.7%, Guingamp 9.1%).

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. We score every call against the result after the match.

49.5%Over 3.5 cards
17.0%Any red card
42.2%Most cards: Guingamp
52.1%Clermont over 1.5 cards
56.6%Guingamp over 1.5 cards
82.2%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 49.5% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 17.0%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianGuingamp are the pick to collect more cards at 42.2%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 49.5%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.

FAQ

How many cards in Clermont vs Guingamp?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 49.5% for Clermont vs Guingamp.
Will there be a red card in Clermont vs Guingamp?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 17.0%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Clermont vs Guingamp?
Before kickoff, the model rated Guingamp to pick up more cards at 42.2%, with a level count at 21.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

More Ligue 2, Cards

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Cards predictions today

Related

Ligue 2Clermont fixtures and statsGuingamp fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.