AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 27 Oct 2026

League Two
CheltenhamCheltenhamWLLLW
Full time1-0Sat, 24 Oct 202624/1012:30UK
Newport CountyNewport CountyWDWDD

Cheltenham 1-0 Newport County cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined53.4%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined46.6%

Result

Cheltenham1-0Newport County
5 yellow cardsCheltenham 2, Newport County 3
0 red cardsCheltenham 0, Newport County 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 53.4% and it landed (5 in the match). We called No at 85.6% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards53.4%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Benjamin Speedie

Recorded match referee.

Benjamin Speedie in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 97 7
Goals 2.33 1.57
Yellow cards 3.00 3.29
Red cards 0.11 0.00
Corners 10.1 10.0
Fouls 22.9 24.3
Both teams scored 43% 14%
Over 2.5 goals 38% 14%
Home wins 39% 57%
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
24 Oct 2026 Cheltenham vs Newport County 1-0 1 No 5 0 6 30
17 Oct 2026 Bristol City vs Sheffield UnitedChampionship 0-1 1 No 2 0 8 26
10 Oct 2026 Preston vs MillwallChampionship 0-1 1 No 3 0 8 19
19 Sep 2026 Chesterfield vs York 2-0 2 No 3 0 11 24
5 Sep 2026 Portsmouth vs CardiffChampionship 2-0 2 No 4 0 12 27
29 Aug 2026 Bolton vs LincolnChampionship 0-1 1 No 3 0 16 21
15 Aug 2026 Charlton vs DerbyChampionship 2-1 3 Yes 3 0 9 23
25 Apr 2026 Walsall vs Harrogate 0-2 2 No 5 0 13 25
11 Apr 2026 Cambridge vs Notts County 4-0 4 No 2 1 8 21
3 Apr 2026 Leicester vs PrestonChampionship 2-2 4 Yes 4 0 9 16

Benjamin Speedie referee stats

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Cheltenham vs Newport County. The model leans toward Newport County for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 73.7% 26.3%
3.5 cards 53.4% 46.6%
4.5 cards 33.9% 66.1%
5.5 cards 19.0% 81.0%

Who picks up more cards

Cheltenham
38.2%
Level
21.2%
Newport County
40.7%

Team cards lines

Cheltenham

Over 1.5
56.2%
Over 2.5
29.3%

Newport County

Over 1.5
58.0%
Over 2.5
31.0%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Cheltenham's; Newport County gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Cheltenham line Cheltenham Newport County
-1.5 20.3% 79.7%
-0.5 38.2% 61.9%
+0.5 59.3% 40.7%
+1.5 77.8% 22.2%

Red card

Any red card14.4%
Cheltenham red card10.5%
Newport County red card4.3%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 69.6% 30.4%
22.5 fouls 54.6% 45.4%
24.5 fouls 39.4% 60.6%

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 53.4%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 73.7% for over 2.5 to 19.0% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 53.4%. Head to head on cards, Newport County are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 40.7%, with a level count at 21.2%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Cheltenham over 1.5 cards sits at 56.2% and Newport County at 58.0%. A red card for either side is rated at 14.4% (Cheltenham 10.5%, Newport County 4.3%).

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.

53.4%Over 3.5 cards
14.4%Any red card
40.7%Most cards: Newport County
56.2%Cheltenham over 1.5 cards
58.0%Newport County over 1.5 cards
54.6%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 53.4% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 14.4%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianNewport County are the pick to collect more cards at 40.7%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 53.4%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.

FAQ

How many cards in Cheltenham vs Newport County?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 53.4% for Cheltenham vs Newport County.
Will there be a red card in Cheltenham vs Newport County?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 14.4%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Cheltenham vs Newport County?
Before kickoff, the model rated Newport County to pick up more cards at 40.7%, with a level count at 21.2%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

League TwoCheltenham fixtures and statsNewport County fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.