CheltenhamCheltenhamWLLLW
Newport CountyNewport CountyWDWDDCheltenham 1-0 Newport County shots: our prediction vs the result
Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.
Result
Cheltenham1-0Newport County
| This match | Cheltenham | Newport | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shots | 6 | 15 | 21 |
| Shots on target | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Model expected shots | 13.0 | 11.5 | 24.5 |
| Model expected on target | 4.2 | 3.9 | 8.1 |
We called Under 24.5 at 51.7% and it landed (21 in the match). We called Over 7.5 at 54.6% and it missed (3 in the match).
Model read
Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.
Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.
Conviction: Lean
Over 24.5 shots48.3%
Shots prediction
Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.
Shot counts move with pressure, not with the result, below are the model total-shot probabilities. The model leans to Cheltenham.
What the model expects
The average number of shots and shots on target each team takes in the model's own distribution for this match, the same distribution the lines below come from. It is an average, not a betting line, and it is a model estimate, not a recorded result.
Treat as a range
| Model expects | Shots | On target |
|---|---|---|
| Cheltenham | 13.0 | 4.2 |
| Newport County | 11.5 | 3.9 |
| Both teams | 24.5 | 8.1 |
Total shots
Both teams combined.
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 61.0% | 39.0% |
| 24.5 shots | 48.3% | 51.7% |
| 26.5 shots | 36.2% | 63.8% |
| 28.5 shots | 25.5% | 74.5% |
Who takes more shots
CheltenhamNewport CountyTeam shots lines
Cheltenham
Newport County
Shots on target
Model probabilities for shots on target, both teams combined in the ladder and per team below. A shot on target is one the goalkeeper has to deal with, or a goal.
Treat as a range
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 67.2% | 32.8% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 54.6% | 45.4% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 42.3% | 57.7% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 31.2% | 68.9% |
Who has more on target
CheltenhamNewport CountyTeam shots on target lines
Cheltenham
Newport County
Shot handicap
The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Cheltenham's; Newport County gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.
| Cheltenham line | Cheltenham | Newport County |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 31.2% | 68.8% |
| -2.5 | 43.4% | 56.6% |
| -0.5 | 56.2% | 43.8% |
| +0.5 | 62.5% | 37.5% |
Shots stats
Recorded results from league matches, not predictions. A missing value is shown as a dot, never as zero.
At home and away: Cheltenham in their home matches and Newport County in their away matches this season, the venue each side plays at in this match. A split appears after three matches at that venue.
By half: shots before and after the break, per game. In the Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A and Ligue 1 the half split comes from Understat and is used only when the shots before the break match the half-time score; elsewhere it comes from the data provider's half-by-half statistics and is used only when both halves add up to the full-time count. Shots on target per half come from the data provider. The halves can therefore have fewer matches, shown in brackets, than the full-match averages.
Last six league matches: the most recent six league matches with shot data, which can include last season. Shown only with at least five matches.
Last six at home and away: Cheltenham's last six home league matches and Newport County's last six away league matches, across seasons when needed.
Recorded 2026/27
Cheltenham at home, Newport County away
Not enough home and away matches with shot data this season yet.
By half, this season
No verified half-by-half shot data for these teams this season yet.
Last six league matches
Last six at home and away
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 17,005 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Shots actually happened 47.3% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.
Our last 10 Shots calls
Our most recent Shots calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 24.5 shots at 48.3%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Line by line, the read runs from 61.0% for over 22.5 to 25.5% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 48.3%. Head to head on shots, Cheltenham are the model’s pick to have more shots at 56.2%, with a level count at 6.3%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. We score every call against the result after the match.
By team, Cheltenham over 12.5 shots sits at 51.6% and Newport County at 38.2%.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Cheltenham vs Newport County?
How many shots on target in Cheltenham vs Newport County?
Which team will have more shots in Cheltenham vs Newport County?
How many shots do Newport County take away from home?
How is this probability calculated?
Is this a betting tip?
More League Two, Shots
Related
Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
