AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

La Liga
CeltaCeltaDDWDW
Full time0-0Sun, 25 Oct 202625/1015:15UK19°C · Cloudy
BetisBetisWWDWL

Celta Vigo 0-0 Real Betis cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined58.2%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined41.8%

Result

Celta0-0Betis
3 yellow cardsCelta 2, Betis 1
0 red cardsCelta 0, Betis 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 58.2% and it missed (3 in the match). We called No at 85.8% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

A moderate lean, nothing emphatic.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Moderate

Over 3.5 cards58.2%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Isidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos

Recorded match referee.

Isidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 16 6
Goals 2.50 1.83
Yellow cards 4.50 5.00
Red cards 0.44 0.33
Corners 8.2 9.2
Fouls 23.9 20.7
Both teams scored 50% 17%
Over 2.5 goals 56% 33%
Home wins 44% 67%
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
25 Oct 2026 Celta vs Betis 0-0 0 No 3 0 7 21
10 Oct 2026 Real Madrid vs Villarreal 1-0 1 No 7 1 12 21
15 Sep 2026 Vallecano vs Espanol 2-1 3 Yes 6 1 8 25
6 Sep 2026 Valencia vs Barcelona 0-5 5 No 4 0 5 13
28 Aug 2026 Alaves vs Villarreal 1-0 1 No 4 0 14 23
21 Aug 2026 Betis vs Sociedad 1-0 1 No 6 0 9 21
3 Jan 2026 Elche vs Villarreal 1-3 4 Yes 6 0 8 19
14 Dec 2025 Sevilla vs Oviedo 4-0 4 No 3 1 8 23
30 Nov 2025 Celta vs Espanol 0-1 1 No 3 0 7 27
7 Nov 2025 Elche vs Sociedad 1-1 2 Yes 4 0 4 29

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Celta vs Betis. It tips Betis for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 76.9% 23.1%
3.5 cards 58.2% 41.8%
4.5 cards 39.2% 60.8%
5.5 cards 23.7% 76.3%

Who picks up more cards

Celta
37.5%
Level
20.0%
Betis
42.6%

Team cards lines

Celta

Over 1.5
58.3%
Over 2.5
32.0%

Betis

Over 1.5
61.8%
Over 2.5
35.6%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Celta's; Betis gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Celta line Celta Betis
-1.5 20.6% 79.4%
-0.5 37.5% 62.6%
+0.5 57.4% 42.6%
+1.5 75.4% 24.7%

Red card

Any red card14.2%
Celta red card5.1%
Betis red card9.6%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 72.2% 27.8%
22.5 fouls 58.8% 41.2%
24.5 fouls 44.9% 55.1%

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 58.2%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 76.9% for over 2.5 to 23.7% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 58.2%. On the card count, Betis are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 42.6%, with a level count at 20.0%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Celta over 1.5 cards sits at 58.3% and Betis at 61.8%. A red card for either side is rated at 14.2% (Celta 5.1%, Betis 9.6%).

58.2%Over 3.5 cards
14.2%Any red card
42.6%Most cards: Betis
58.3%Celta over 1.5 cards
61.8%Betis over 1.5 cards
58.8%Over 22.5 fouls

We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 58.2% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 14.2%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianBetis are the pick to collect more cards at 42.6%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 58.2%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.

FAQ

How many cards in Celta vs Betis?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 58.2% for Celta vs Betis.
Will there be a red card in Celta vs Betis?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 14.2%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Celta vs Betis?
Before kickoff, the model rated Betis to pick up more cards at 42.6%, with a level count at 20.0%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

La LigaCelta Vigo fixtures and statsReal Betis fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.