AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 31 Oct 2026

Segunda División
CastellonCastellonWDLWW
Fri, 6 Nov 20266/1119:30UK
EibarEibarWWLDL

Castellon vs Eibar cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined75%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined25%

Model read

A clear lean on the model's numbers.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Strong

Over 3.5 cards75.0%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Castellon vs Eibar. It tips Eibar for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 88.4% 11.6%
3.5 cards 75.0% 25.1%
4.5 cards 57.8% 42.2%
5.5 cards 40.3% 59.7%

Who picks up more cards

Castellon
33.8%
Level
17.9%
Eibar
48.4%

Team cards lines

Castellon

Over 1.5
67.8%
Over 2.5
41.4%

Eibar

Over 1.5
76.3%
Over 2.5
52.2%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Castellon's; Eibar gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Castellon line Castellon Eibar
-1.5 19.1% 80.9%
-0.5 33.8% 66.2%
+0.5 51.6% 48.4%
+1.5 69.0% 31.0%

Red card

Any red card22.8%
Castellon red card15.7%
Eibar red card8.4%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 78.6% 21.4%
22.5 fouls 66.5% 33.5%
24.5 fouls 52.8% 47.2%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Castellon G. Cid 2 5.0 1.0
Castellon M. H. De Aza 2 5.5 1.5

Swipe to see all referee stats →

CastellonCastellon

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Castellon at home and Eibar away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

EibarEibar
Statistic
Castellon
Eibar
Cards per game at this venue
·
2.3

Opponent cards per game at this venue
·
2.5

Yellow cards per game
1.7
1.9

First-half yellow cards per game
0.2
0.6

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.4
1.6

Matches with more cards than the opponent
·
28.6%

Matches with card data
5
7
Red cards this season
·
2

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,950Matches graded

In 8,516 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Cards actually happened 73.2% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 31 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✓ 50.6%✗ 50.7%✗ 51.1%✓ 52.0%✓ 54.1%✓ 50.1%✓ 54.7%✗ 63.6%✗ 51.1%✗ 52.8%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Frosinone vs Lecce2026-10-29Under 3.5 50.6%Hit
Fiorentina vs Atalanta2026-10-29Under 3.5 50.7%Miss
Milan vs Bologna2026-10-28Over 3.5 51.1%Miss
Parma vs Udinese2026-10-28Under 3.5 52.0%Hit
Venezia vs Inter2026-10-28Under 3.5 54.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 75.0%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 88.4% for over 2.5 to 40.3% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 57.8%. Between the two sides, Eibar are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 48.4%, with a level count at 17.9%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Castellon over 1.5 cards sits at 67.8% and Eibar at 76.3%. A red card for either side is rated at 22.8% (Castellon 15.7%, Eibar 8.4%). Castellon’s most frequent referee this season, G. Cid, has averaged 5.0 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

75.0%Over 3.5 cards
22.8%Any red card
48.4%Most cards: Eibar
67.8%Castellon over 1.5 cards
76.3%Eibar over 1.5 cards
66.5%Over 22.5 fouls

We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 75.0% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherG. Cid, Castellon’s most frequent referee this season, averages 5.0 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 22.8%, a live risk in this one, and a red changes every card line at once.
The DisciplinarianEibar are the pick to collect more cards at 48.4%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
CastellonCastellon

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

EibarEibar
Statistic
Castellon
Eibar
cards per game
·
2.0

fouls per game
11.2
11.1

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Castellon vs Eibar?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 75.0% for Castellon vs Eibar.
Will there be a red card in Castellon vs Eibar?
The model rates a red card for either side at 22.8%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Castellon vs Eibar?
The model rates Eibar to pick up more cards at 48.4%, with a level count at 17.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

More Segunda División, Cards

Celta B vs Cordoba cards predictionAlbacete vs Sabadell cards predictionEldense vs Granada cards predictionCeuta vs Sporting Gijon cards predictionBurgos vs Castellon cards predictionTenerife vs Andorra cards prediction

Cards predictions today

Related

Segunda DivisiónCastellon fixtures and statsEibar fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.