AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Championship
CardiffCardiffLWLWD
Full time1-0Sat, 24 Oct 202624/1015:00UK
BirminghamBirminghamWDWWW

Cardiff 1-0 Birmingham corners: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined58.4%
Under 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined41.6%

Result

Cardiff1-0Birmingham
6 cornersCardiff 3, Birmingham 3
Over 9.5

We called Over 9.5 at 58.4% and it missed (6 in the match).

Model read

A moderate lean, nothing emphatic.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Moderate

Over 9.5 corners58.4%

Corners

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Corners track territory and shot volume more than the scoreline, below are the model total-corner probabilities. The model edges Cardiff.

Total corners

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
7.5 corners 79.8% 20.2%
8.5 corners 69.7% 30.3%
9.5 corners 58.4% 41.6%
10.5 corners 46.8% 53.2%
11.5 corners 35.8% 64.2%
12.5 corners 26.2% 73.8%

Who wins the corner count

Cardiff
56.4%
Level
10.1%
Birmingham
33.5%

Team corners lines

Cardiff

Over 3.5
79.0%
Over 4.5
65.1%
Over 5.5
50.3%

Birmingham

Over 3.5
65.1%
Over 4.5
48.3%
Over 5.5
33.0%

Corner handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Cardiff's; Birmingham gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Cardiff line Cardiff Birmingham
-3.5 26.5% 73.5%
-1.5 45.8% 54.2%
-0.5 56.4% 43.6%
+0.5 66.5% 33.5%

Corners accuracy

How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

54.0%Best Corners call, hit rate
0.0095Calibration error
50,938Matches graded

In 24,028 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.2% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Corners calls

Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 55.9%✓ 52.1%✓ 53.5%✓ 50.6%✓ 53.9%✗ 51.1%✗ 50.7%✗ 58.3%✓ 55.7%✗ 59.5%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Under 9.5 55.9%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Over 9.5 52.1%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.5%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Under 9.5 50.6%Hit
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.9%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 9.5 corners at 58.4%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Line by line, the read runs from 79.8% for over 7.5 to 26.2% for over 12.5, with over 10.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 46.8%. On the corner count, Cardiff are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 56.4%, with a level count at 10.1%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. We score every call against the result after the match.

58.4%Over 9.5 corners
56.4%Most corners: Cardiff
65.1%Cardiff over 4.5 corners
48.3%Birmingham over 4.5 corners
50.0%Odd corner total

Split by side, Cardiff over 4.5 corners sits at 65.1% and Birmingham at 48.3%.

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 58.4% on Corners. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Territory ReaderCardiff are the pick to win the corner count at 56.4%, territory tends to follow the side forcing the play.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 10.5 corners: over sits at 46.8%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.

FAQ

How many corners in Cardiff vs Birmingham?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 9.5 total corners at 58.4% for Cardiff vs Birmingham.
Which team will win the corner count in Cardiff vs Birmingham?
Before kickoff, the model rated Cardiff to win the corner count at 56.4%, with a level count at 10.1%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Corner predictions today

Related

ChampionshipCardiff fixtures and statsBirmingham fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.