AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Championship
CardiffCardiffLWLWD
Full time1-0Sat, 24 Oct 202624/1015:00UK
BirminghamBirminghamWDWWW

Cardiff 1-0 Birmingham cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined51.3%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined48.7%

Result

Cardiff1-0Birmingham
3 yellow cardsCardiff 1, Birmingham 2
0 red cardsCardiff 0, Birmingham 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 51.3% and it missed (3 in the match). We called No at 88.6% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards51.3%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Tim Robinson

Recorded match referee.

Tim Robinson in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 338 8
Goals 2.52 2.62
Yellow cards 3.77 4.50
Red cards 0.15 0.12
Corners 9.9 9.9
Fouls 23.5 26.6
Both teams scored 49% 75%
Over 2.5 goals 44% 63%
Home wins 44% 38%
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
24 Oct 2026 Cardiff vs Birmingham 1-0 1 No 3 0 6 29
13 Oct 2026 Wolves vs Bolton 1-3 4 Yes 5 0 12 25
10 Oct 2026 Bristol Rvs vs BarnetLeague Two 1-3 4 Yes 4 1 10 25
19 Sep 2026 Stoke vs Sheffield United 2-1 3 Yes 8 0 9 27
15 Sep 2026 Bristol City vs Lincoln 0-1 1 No 7 0 17 32
8 Sep 2026 Wrexham vs Burnley 1-1 2 Yes 5 0 8 27
2 Sep 2026 QPR vs Cardiff 2-1 3 Yes 2 0 7 22
15 Aug 2026 Norwich vs West Brom 1-2 3 Yes 2 0 10 26
14 Mar 2026 Birmingham vs Sheffield United 1-1 2 Yes 6 1 7 24
3 Mar 2026 Everton vs BurnleyPremier League 2-0 2 No 1 0 9 22

Tim Robinson referee stats

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Cardiff vs Birmingham. It tips Birmingham for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 72.0% 28.0%
3.5 cards 51.3% 48.7%
4.5 cards 32.0% 68.1%
5.5 cards 17.5% 82.5%

Who picks up more cards

Cardiff
29.1%
Level
20.8%
Birmingham
50.1%

Team cards lines

Cardiff

Over 1.5
47.6%
Over 2.5
21.7%

Birmingham

Over 1.5
62.9%
Over 2.5
35.9%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Cardiff's; Birmingham gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Cardiff line Cardiff Birmingham
-1.5 13.8% 86.2%
-0.5 29.1% 70.9%
+0.5 49.9% 50.1%
+1.5 70.4% 29.6%

Red card

Any red card11.4%
Cardiff red card9.1%
Birmingham red card2.6%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 62.6% 37.4%
22.5 fouls 47.0% 53.0%
24.5 fouls 32.3% 67.7%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Cardiff J Busby 2 4.5 1.5
Cardiff T Nield 2 2.0 1.5
Birmingham G Ward 2 3.0 2.0

Swipe to see all referee stats →

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 51.3%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 72.0% for over 2.5 to 17.5% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 51.3%. On the card count, Birmingham are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 50.1%, with a level count at 20.8%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Cardiff over 1.5 cards sits at 47.6% and Birmingham at 62.9%. A red card for either side is rated at 11.4% (Cardiff 9.1%, Birmingham 2.6%). Cardiff’s most frequent referee this season, J Busby, has averaged 4.5 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

We publish the model, not a sure thing. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

51.3%Over 3.5 cards
11.4%Any red card
50.1%Most cards: Birmingham
47.6%Cardiff over 1.5 cards
62.9%Birmingham over 1.5 cards
47.0%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 51.3% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherJ Busby, Cardiff’s most frequent referee this season, averages 4.5 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 11.4%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianBirmingham are the pick to collect more cards at 50.1%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.

FAQ

How many cards in Cardiff vs Birmingham?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 51.3% for Cardiff vs Birmingham.
Will there be a red card in Cardiff vs Birmingham?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 11.4%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Cardiff vs Birmingham?
Before kickoff, the model rated Birmingham to pick up more cards at 50.1%, with a level count at 20.8%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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ChampionshipCardiff fixtures and statsBirmingham fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.