Cardiff 1-0 Birmingham shots: our prediction vs the result
Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.
Result
Cardiff1-0Birmingham
| This match | Cardiff | Birmingham | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shots | 16 | 7 | 23 |
| Shots on target | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| 1st-half shots | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 2nd-half shots | 13 | 7 | 20 |
| 1st-half on target | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 2nd-half on target | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| Model expected shots | 14.1 | 11.3 | 25.4 |
| Model expected on target | 4.8 | 3.8 | 8.7 |
We called Over 24.5 at 54.3% and it missed (23 in the match). We called Over 7.5 at 61.4% and it missed (6 in the match).
Model read
Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.
Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.
Conviction: Lean
Over 24.5 shots54.3%
Shots prediction
Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.
Shot volume tracks territory and game state more than the scoreline, below are the model total-shot probabilities. The model leans to Cardiff.
What the model expects
The average number of shots and shots on target each team takes in the model's own distribution for this match, the same distribution the lines below come from. It is an average, not a betting line, and it is a model estimate, not a recorded result.
Treat as a range
| Model expects | Shots | On target |
|---|---|---|
| Cardiff | 14.1 | 4.8 |
| Birmingham | 11.3 | 3.8 |
| Both teams | 25.4 | 8.7 |
Total shots
Both teams combined.
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 66.5% | 33.5% |
| 24.5 shots | 54.3% | 45.8% |
| 26.5 shots | 41.9% | 58.1% |
| 28.5 shots | 30.5% | 69.5% |
Who takes more shots
CardiffBirminghamTeam shots lines
Cardiff
Birmingham
Shots on target
Model probabilities for shots on target, both teams combined in the ladder and per team below. A shot on target is one the goalkeeper has to deal with, or a goal.
Treat as a range
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 73.4% | 26.6% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 61.4% | 38.6% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 48.9% | 51.1% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 37.0% | 63.0% |
Who has more on target
CardiffBirminghamTeam shots on target lines
Cardiff
Birmingham
Shot handicap
The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Cardiff's; Birmingham gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.
| Cardiff line | Cardiff | Birmingham |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 39.7% | 60.3% |
| -2.5 | 52.2% | 47.8% |
| -0.5 | 64.6% | 35.4% |
| +0.5 | 70.3% | 29.7% |
Shots stats
Recorded results from league matches, not predictions. A missing value is shown as a dot, never as zero.
At home and away: Cardiff in their home matches and Birmingham in their away matches this season, the venue each side plays at in this match. A split appears after three matches at that venue.
By half: shots before and after the break, per game. In the Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A and Ligue 1 the half split comes from Understat and is used only when the shots before the break match the half-time score; elsewhere it comes from the data provider's half-by-half statistics and is used only when both halves add up to the full-time count. Shots on target per half come from the data provider. The halves can therefore have fewer matches, shown in brackets, than the full-match averages.
Last six league matches: the most recent six league matches with shot data, which can include last season. Shown only with at least five matches.
Last six at home and away: Cardiff's last six home league matches and Birmingham's last six away league matches, across seasons when needed.
Recorded 2026/27
Cardiff at home, Birmingham away
Not enough home and away matches with shot data this season yet.
By half, this season
No verified half-by-half shot data for these teams this season yet.
Last six league matches
Last six at home and away
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 13,109 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Shots actually happened 57.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.
Our last 10 Shots calls
Our most recent Shots calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 24.5 shots at 54.3%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Line by line, the read runs from 66.5% for over 22.5 to 30.5% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 54.3%. Between the two sides, Cardiff are the model’s pick to have more shots at 64.6%, with a level count at 5.7%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.
In-depth analysis
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
By team, Cardiff over 12.5 shots sits at 61.4% and Birmingham at 36.1%.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Cardiff vs Birmingham?
How many shots on target in Cardiff vs Birmingham?
Which team will have more shots in Cardiff vs Birmingham?
How many shots do Birmingham take away from home?
How is this probability calculated?
Is this a betting tip?
More Championship, Shots
Related
Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
