AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 13 Oct 2026

Segunda División
CadizCadizLLLDW
Full time0-1Sun, 11 Oct 202611/1020:00UK
Sp GijonSp GijonLLWLW

Cadiz 0-1 Sporting Gijon cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined73.2%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined26.8%

Result

Cadiz0-1Sp Gijon
3 yellow cardsCadiz 1, Sp Gijon 2
0 red cardsCadiz 0, Sp Gijon 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 73.2% and it missed (3 in the match). We called No at 87.1% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

A clear lean on the model's numbers.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Strong

Over 3.5 cards73.2%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Cadiz vs Sp Gijon. The model leans toward Cadiz for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 87.4% 12.6%
3.5 cards 73.2% 26.8%
4.5 cards 55.6% 44.4%
5.5 cards 38.0% 62.0%

Who picks up more cards

Cadiz
43.2%
Level
18.4%
Sp Gijon
38.5%

Team cards lines

Cadiz

Over 1.5
72.4%
Over 2.5
47.1%

Sp Gijon

Over 1.5
69.6%
Over 2.5
43.6%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Cadiz's; Sp Gijon gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Cadiz line Cadiz Sp Gijon
-1.5 26.3% 73.7%
-0.5 43.2% 56.8%
+0.5 61.5% 38.5%
+1.5 77.5% 22.5%

Red card

Any red card12.9%
Cadiz red card7.2%
Sp Gijon red card6.1%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 76.2% 23.8%
22.5 fouls 63.6% 36.4%
24.5 fouls 49.7% 50.3%
CadizCadiz

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Cadiz at home and Sp Gijon away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

Sp GijonSp Gijon
Statistic
Cadiz
Sp Gijon
Cards per game at this venue
3.8
5.0

Opponent cards per game at this venue
2.8
2.0

Yellow cards per game
3.5
2.9

Red cards this season
0
1

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 8,516 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Cards actually happened 73.2% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 73.2%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 87.4% for over 2.5 to 38.0% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 55.6%. On the card count, Cadiz are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 43.2%, with a level count at 18.4%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Cadiz over 1.5 cards sits at 72.4% and Sp Gijon at 69.6%. A red card for either side is rated at 12.9% (Cadiz 7.2%, Sp Gijon 6.1%). This season Cadiz have averaged 3.5 cards a game and Sp Gijon 3.0.

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.

73.2%Over 3.5 cards
12.9%Any red card
43.2%Most cards: Cadiz
72.4%Cadiz over 1.5 cards
69.6%Sp Gijon over 1.5 cards
63.6%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 73.2% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 12.9%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianCadiz are the pick to collect more cards at 43.2%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 4.5 cards: over sits at 55.6%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
CadizCadiz

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

Sp GijonSp Gijon
Statistic
Cadiz
Sp Gijon
cards per game
3.5
3.0

fouls per game
12.6
11.6

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Cadiz vs Sp Gijon?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 73.2% for Cadiz vs Sp Gijon.
Will there be a red card in Cadiz vs Sp Gijon?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 12.9%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Cadiz vs Sp Gijon?
Before kickoff, the model rated Cadiz to pick up more cards at 43.2%, with a level count at 18.4%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

Segunda DivisiónCadiz fixtures and statsSporting Gijon fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.