AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 27 Oct 2026

League Two
Bristol RvsBristol RvsWLLLL
Full time0-0Sat, 24 Oct 202624/1012:30UK
SwindonSwindonDLLDW

Bristol Rovers 0-0 Swindon cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined52.3%
Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined47.7%

Result

Bristol Rvs0-0Swindon
3 yellow cardsBristol Rvs 1, Swindon 2
0 red cardsBristol Rvs 0, Swindon 0
Under 3.5No

We called Under 3.5 at 52.3% and it landed (3 in the match). We called No at 77.8% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards47.7%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Sebastian Stockbridge

Recorded match referee.

Sebastian Stockbridge in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 166 3
Goals 2.77 Not available
Yellow cards 3.52 Not available
Red cards 0.14 Not available
Corners 10.1 Not available
Fouls 23.2 Not available
Both teams scored 59% Not available
Over 2.5 goals 52% Not available
Home wins 43% Not available
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
24 Oct 2026 Bristol Rvs vs Swindon 0-0 0 No 3 0 8 19
5 Sep 2026 Tranmere vs Oldham 2-0 2 No 5 0 12 27
29 Aug 2026 Rotherham vs Chesterfield 2-1 3 Yes 3 0 2 25
11 Apr 2026 Chesterfield vs Tranmere 1-1 2 Yes 6 0 13 25
3 Apr 2026 Salford vs Notts County 2-1 3 Yes 2 0 8 29
21 Mar 2026 Oldham vs Harrogate 1-0 1 No 4 0 9 17
7 Mar 2026 Grimsby vs Bromley 1-1 2 Yes 2 0 11 23
17 Jan 2026 Crewe vs Barrow 3-1 4 Yes 7 0 11 35
1 Jan 2026 Harrogate vs Tranmere 0-2 2 No 3 0 14 25
9 Dec 2025 Fleetwood Town vs Salford 1-1 2 Yes 3 0 8 30

Sebastian Stockbridge referee stats

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Bristol Rvs vs Swindon. Slightly more cards are projected for Swindon for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 69.0% 31.0%
3.5 cards 47.7% 52.3%
4.5 cards 28.6% 71.4%
5.5 cards 15.1% 84.9%

Who picks up more cards

Bristol Rvs
30.9%
Level
21.6%
Swindon
47.5%

Team cards lines

Bristol Rvs

Over 1.5
46.7%
Over 2.5
21.0%

Swindon

Over 1.5
59.1%
Over 2.5
32.0%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Bristol Rvs's; Swindon gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Bristol Rvs line Bristol Rvs Swindon
-1.5 14.6% 85.4%
-0.5 30.9% 69.2%
+0.5 52.5% 47.5%
+1.5 73.0% 27.1%

Red card

Any red card22.2%
Bristol Rvs red card8.0%
Swindon red card15.4%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 54.5% 45.5%
22.5 fouls 38.5% 61.5%
24.5 fouls 24.7% 75.3%

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 10,293 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 47.7%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 69.0% for over 2.5 to 15.1% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 47.7%. Head to head on cards, Swindon are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 47.5%, with a level count at 21.6%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Bristol Rvs over 1.5 cards sits at 46.7% and Swindon at 59.1%. A red card for either side is rated at 22.2% (Bristol Rvs 8.0%, Swindon 15.4%).

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.

47.7%Over 3.5 cards
22.2%Any red card
47.5%Most cards: Swindon
46.7%Bristol Rvs over 1.5 cards
59.1%Swindon over 1.5 cards
38.5%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 47.7% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 22.2%, high enough to matter for the team lines.
The DisciplinarianSwindon are the pick to collect more cards at 47.5%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 47.7%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.

FAQ

How many cards in Bristol Rvs vs Swindon?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 47.7% for Bristol Rvs vs Swindon.
Will there be a red card in Bristol Rvs vs Swindon?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 22.2%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Bristol Rvs vs Swindon?
Before kickoff, the model rated Swindon to pick up more cards at 47.5%, with a level count at 21.6%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

League TwoBristol Rovers fixtures and statsSwindon fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.