AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 13 Oct 2026

League Two
Bristol RvsBristol RvsWLLWL
Full time1-3Sat, 10 Oct 202610/1015:00UK
BarnetBarnetDDDWW

Bristol Rovers 1-3 Barnet cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined56.2%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined43.8%

Result

Bristol Rvs1-3Barnet
4 yellow cardsBristol Rvs 2, Barnet 2
1 red cardsBristol Rvs 1, Barnet 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 56.2% and it landed (4 in the match). We called No at 79.2% and it missed (1 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards56.2%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Tim Robinson

Recorded match referee.

Tim Robinson in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 338 8
Goals 2.52 2.62
Yellow cards 3.77 4.50
Red cards 0.15 0.12
Corners 9.9 9.9
Fouls 23.5 26.6
Both teams scored 49% 75%
Over 2.5 goals 44% 63%
Home wins 44% 38%
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
24 Oct 2026 Cardiff vs BirminghamChampionship 1-0 1 No 3 0 6 29
13 Oct 2026 Wolves vs BoltonChampionship 1-3 4 Yes 5 0 12 25
10 Oct 2026 Bristol Rvs vs Barnet 1-3 4 Yes 4 1 10 25
19 Sep 2026 Stoke vs Sheffield UnitedChampionship 2-1 3 Yes 8 0 9 27
15 Sep 2026 Bristol City vs LincolnChampionship 0-1 1 No 7 0 17 32
8 Sep 2026 Wrexham vs BurnleyChampionship 1-1 2 Yes 5 0 8 27
2 Sep 2026 QPR vs CardiffChampionship 2-1 3 Yes 2 0 7 22
15 Aug 2026 Norwich vs West BromChampionship 1-2 3 Yes 2 0 10 26
14 Mar 2026 Birmingham vs Sheffield UnitedChampionship 1-1 2 Yes 6 1 7 24
3 Mar 2026 Everton vs BurnleyPremier League 2-0 2 No 1 0 9 22

Tim Robinson referee stats

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Bristol Rvs vs Barnet. The model leans toward Barnet for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 75.9% 24.1%
3.5 cards 56.2% 43.8%
4.5 cards 36.7% 63.3%
5.5 cards 21.2% 78.8%

Who picks up more cards

Bristol Rvs
39.3%
Level
20.8%
Barnet
39.9%

Team cards lines

Bristol Rvs

Over 1.5
58.9%
Over 2.5
31.8%

Barnet

Over 1.5
59.3%
Over 2.5
32.3%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Bristol Rvs's; Barnet gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Bristol Rvs line Bristol Rvs Barnet
-1.5 21.5% 78.5%
-0.5 39.3% 60.7%
+0.5 60.1% 39.9%
+1.5 78.1% 21.9%

Red card

Any red card20.8%
Bristol Rvs red card9.6%
Barnet red card12.3%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 75.0% 25.0%
22.5 fouls 61.0% 39.0%
24.5 fouls 46.0% 54.1%
Bristol RvsBristol Rvs

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Bristol Rvs at home and Barnet away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

BarnetBarnet
Statistic
Bristol Rvs
Barnet
Cards per game at this venue
1.8
2.3

Opponent cards per game at this venue
1.5
1.7

Yellow cards per game
2.2
1.7

Red cards this season
1
1

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 56.2%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 75.9% for over 2.5 to 21.2% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 56.2%. Head to head on cards, Barnet are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 39.9%, with a level count at 20.8%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

By team, Bristol Rvs over 1.5 cards sits at 58.9% and Barnet at 59.3%. A red card for either side is rated at 20.8% (Bristol Rvs 9.6%, Barnet 12.3%). This season Bristol Rvs have averaged 2.3 cards a game and Barnet 1.9.

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.

56.2%Over 3.5 cards
20.8%Any red card
39.9%Most cards: Barnet
58.9%Bristol Rvs over 1.5 cards
59.3%Barnet over 1.5 cards
61.0%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 56.2% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 20.8%, a live risk in this one, and a red changes every card line at once.
The DisciplinarianBarnet are the pick to collect more cards at 39.9%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 56.2%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
Bristol RvsBristol Rvs

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

BarnetBarnet
Statistic
Bristol Rvs
Barnet
cards per game
2.3
1.9

fouls per game
12.7
14.4

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Bristol Rvs vs Barnet?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 56.2% for Bristol Rvs vs Barnet.
Will there be a red card in Bristol Rvs vs Barnet?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 20.8%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Bristol Rvs vs Barnet?
Before kickoff, the model rated Barnet to pick up more cards at 39.9%, with a level count at 20.8%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

League TwoBristol Rovers fixtures and statsBarnet fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.