Beveren vs Lommel SK prediction & probabilities (2026-10-09)

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Beveren vs Lommel SK: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 22 Sep 2026

Pro League
Beveren

LLWWL

Fri, 9 Oct 20269/1019:45UK
Lommel SK

WWLLD

Model’s top convictions

75%

Over 1.5 goals

70%

Beveren or draw

64%

Over 8.5 corners

Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Model pick

Beveren42.9%

Win probability · fair 2.33

Top signals

Over 1.5 goalsVery likely75.3%Fair 1.33
Beveren or drawLikely69.8%Fair 1.43
Over 8.5 cornersLikely63.7%Fair 1.57

Model read

A measured edge to Beveren: 43% is the model's line for this Pro League meeting on 9 October 2026. Totals sit close to the fence: 50% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 55%. Beveren are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. Recent form reads W3 D0 L3 for Beveren against W2 D1 L3 for Lommel SK. Discipline says sit it out: no bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Value & higher-risk angles

Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.

High risk

Over 10.5 corners42.6%@ 2.35
Over 11.5 corners33.1%@ 3.02
Lommel SK win30.2%@ 3.31
Medium risk

Draw or Lommel SK57.1%@ 1.75
Both teams to score54.6%@ 1.83
Over 9.5 corners53.0%@ 1.89
Random finds

1-1 correct score12.8%@ 7.81
1-0 correct score9.5%@ 10.49
2-1 correct score9.0%@ 11.11

Model vs market

Beveren

42.9%

Draw

26.9%

Lommel SK

30.2%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals

Over 1.5Strongest read · Very likely75.3%Fair 1.33
Over 2.5Close call50.1%Fair 2.00
BTTS · YesClose call54.6%Fair 1.83

Corners

Over 8.5 cornersLikely63.7%Fair 1.57
Over 9.5 cornersClose call53.0%Fair 1.89
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely42.6%Fair 2.35
Over 11.5 cornersUnlikely33.1%Fair 3.02
Most cornersBeveren52.6%Lommel SK36.7%

Shots

Over 22.5 shotsLikely72.0%Fair 1.39
Over 24.5 shotsLikely61.0%Fair 1.64
Over 26.5 shotsClose call49.3%Fair 2.03
Over 28.5 shotsUnlikely37.9%Fair 2.64

Recent shot volume

Beveren10.7 taken15.0 faced
Lommel SK10.2 taken19.2 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.575.3%2.550.1%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.575.3%

Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Form & head-to-head

BeverenLLWWL
Lommel SKWWLLD

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

BeverenLommel SK
League position#10 of 20#12 of 20
Record W-D-L3-0-42-2-3
Current streakL1D1
Points per game1.291.14
Record, home vs away3-0-01-1-1
PPG, home vs away3.001.33
Goals scored per game1.000.86
Goals conceded per game1.571.14
Scored, home vs away2.000.67
Conceded, home vs away0.002.00
1st half goals per game0.290.43
2nd half goals per game0.710.43
Corners won per game4.43.4
Cards per game2.01.0
Fouls per game9.07.4
Red cards this season10
Shots per game10.710.0
Shots faced per game15.621.0
Shots on target per game3.32.4
Over 2.5 rate

57.1%28.6%

BTTS rate

14.3%14.3%

Clean sheets

42.9%42.9%

Rates this season:BeverenLommel SK

League averages this season: 2.94 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 62% · BTTS in 40%. Full league tables & stats →

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Beveren win2.33
Draw3.72
Lommel SK win3.31
Both teams to score1.83

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.08
Over 1.5 goals1.33
Over 2.5 goals2.00
Over 3.5 goals3.56
Beveren most2.33
Lommel SK most3.31

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.29
Over 8.5 corners1.50
Over 9.5 corners1.83
Over 10.5 corners2.33
Beveren most1.90
Lommel SK most2.72

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.52
Over 3.5 cards2.28
Over 4.5 cards3.91
Over 5.5 cards7.63
Beveren most2.77
Lommel SK most2.42

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.32
Over 7.5 SoT1.55
Over 8.5 SoT1.90
Over 9.5 SoT2.44
Beveren most1.74
Lommel SK most3.24

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.39
Over 24.5 shots1.64
Over 26.5 shots2.03
Over 28.5 shots2.64
Beveren most1.60
Lommel SK most3.11

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.85
Over 22.5 fouls2.56
Over 24.5 fouls3.82
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 72.0% Over 24.5 61.0% Over 26.5 49.3% Over 28.5 37.9%
Most: Beveren 62.4% Most: Lommel SK 32.1%
Beveren Over 13.2 56.8% Lommel SK Over 13.2 34.9%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 75.9% Over 7.5 64.7% Over 8.5 52.7% Over 9.5 41.0%
Most: Beveren 57.5% Most: Lommel SK 30.9%
Beveren Over 4.2 54.8% Lommel SK Over 4.2 35.4%

Cards

Over 2.5 65.6% Over 3.5 43.9% Over 4.5 25.6%
Most: Beveren 36.2% Most: Lommel SK 41.4%
Beveren Over 1.8 48.4% Lommel SK Over 1.8 52.2%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.

Beveren clean sheet 30.0%
Lommel SK clean sheet 22.8%
Beveren win to nil 22.5%
Lommel SK win to nil 15.3%

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 42.9% draw 26.9% away 30.2%
double_chance
1X 69.8% 12 73.1% X2 57.1%
dnb
home 58.7% away 41.3%
btts
yes 54.6% no 45.4%
clean_sheet
home 30.1% away 22.8%
win_to_nil
home 22.6% away 15.4%
winning_margin
home_by_1 21.6% home_by_2 13.0% home_by_3plus 8.3%
away_by_1 17.5% away_by_2 8.6% away_by_3plus 4.1%
correct_score
0-0 7.5% 0-1 7.6% 0-2 5.0%
0-3 2.0% 0-4 0.6% 0-5 0.1%
1-0 9.5% 1-1 12.8% 1-2 7.3%
1-3 2.9% 1-4 0.9% 1-5 0.2%
2-0 7.5% 2-1 9.0% 2-2 5.4%
2-3 2.2% 2-4 0.7% 2-5 0.2%
3-0 3.7% 3-1 4.4% 3-2 2.7%
3-3 1.1% 3-4 0.3% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 1.4% 4-1 1.6% 4-2 1.0%
4-3 0.4% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.4% 5-1 0.5% 5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.6%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 12.8%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 92.5% under_0.5 7.5% over_1.5 75.4%
under_1.5 24.7% over_2.5 50.1% under_2.5 49.9%
over_3.5 28.1% under_3.5 71.9% over_4.5 13.4%
under_4.5 86.6% over_5.5 5.5% under_5.5 94.5%
odd_even
odd 48.6% even 51.4%
team_home
over_0.5 77.2% under_0.5 22.8% over_1.5 43.4%
under_1.5 56.6% over_2.5 18.5% under_2.5 81.5%
team_away
over_0.5 69.9% under_0.5 30.1% over_1.5 33.8%
under_1.5 66.2% over_2.5 12.1% under_2.5 87.9%
most
home 42.9% draw 26.9% away 30.2%
handicap
home_-2.5 8.3% away_+2.5 91.7% home_-1.5 21.3%
away_+1.5 78.7% home_-0.5 42.9% away_+0.5 57.1%
home_+0.5 69.8% away_-0.5 30.2% home_+1.5 87.3%
away_-1.5 12.7% home_+2.5 95.9% away_-2.5 4.1%
total_exact
exact_0 7.5% exact_1 17.2% exact_2 25.2%
exact_3 22.0% exact_4 14.7% exact_5 7.9%
exact_6 3.5% exact_7plus 2.0%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 22.0% draw 48.9% away 29.0%
total
over_0.5 59.7% under_0.5 40.3% over_1.5 23.1%
under_1.5 76.9% over_2.5 6.4% under_2.5 93.6%
btts
yes 13.2% no 86.8%
total_exact
exact_0 40.3% exact_1 36.6% exact_2 16.7%
exact_3 5.1% exact_4plus 1.4%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 39.5% draw 38.3% away 22.1%
total
over_0.5 74.3% under_0.5 25.7% over_1.5 39.4%
under_1.5 60.6% over_2.5 15.7% under_2.5 84.3%
btts
yes 23.3% no 76.7%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 17.9% H/D 3.2% H/A 1.0%
D/H 19.3% D/D 18.8% D/A 10.8%
A/H 3.2% A/D 6.5% A/A 19.4%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 77.3% under_7.5 22.7% over_8.5 66.6%
under_8.5 33.4% over_9.5 54.7% under_9.5 45.3%
over_10.5 42.9% under_10.5 57.1% over_11.5 32.1%
under_11.5 67.9% over_12.5 22.9% under_12.5 77.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 75.4% under_3.5 24.6% over_4.5 60.5%
under_4.5 39.5% over_5.5 45.2% under_5.5 54.8%
team_away
over_3.5 65.4% under_3.5 34.6% over_4.5 48.5%
under_4.5 51.5% over_5.5 33.2% under_5.5 66.8%
most
home 52.8% draw 10.5% away 36.7%
handicap
home_-3.5 23.2% away_+3.5 76.8% home_-1.5 42.1%
away_+1.5 57.9% home_-0.5 52.8% away_+0.5 47.3%
home_+0.5 63.3% away_-0.5 36.7% home_+1.5 72.9%
away_-1.5 27.1% home_+3.5 87.4% away_-3.5 12.7%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 72.0% under_22.5 28.0% over_24.5 61.0%
under_24.5 39.0% over_26.5 49.3% under_26.5 50.7%
over_28.5 37.9% under_28.5 62.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 78.6% under_10.5 21.4% over_12.5 64.5%
under_12.5 35.5% over_14.5 49.1% under_14.5 50.9%
team_away
over_10.5 60.1% under_10.5 39.9% over_12.5 42.8%
under_12.5 57.2% over_14.5 27.8% under_14.5 72.2%
most
home 62.4% draw 5.5% away 32.1%
handicap
home_-4.5 39.1% away_+4.5 61.0% home_-2.5 50.8%
away_+2.5 49.2% home_-0.5 62.4% away_+0.5 37.6%
home_+0.5 67.9% away_-0.5 32.1% home_+2.5 77.7%
away_-2.5 22.3% home_+4.5 85.5% away_-4.5 14.5%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 75.9% under_6.5 24.1% over_7.5 64.7%
under_7.5 35.3% over_8.5 52.7% under_8.5 47.3%
over_9.5 40.9% under_9.5 59.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 70.8% under_3.5 29.2% over_4.5 54.8%
under_4.5 45.2% over_5.5 39.4% under_5.5 60.6%
team_away
over_3.5 53.0% under_3.5 47.0% over_4.5 35.4%
under_4.5 64.6% over_5.5 21.6% under_5.5 78.4%
most
home 57.5% draw 11.6% away 30.9%
handicap
home_-2.5 33.6% away_+2.5 66.4% home_-0.5 57.5%
away_+0.5 42.5% home_+0.5 69.1% away_-0.5 30.9%
home_+2.5 86.8% away_-2.5 13.2%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 65.6% under_2.5 34.4% over_3.5 43.9%
under_3.5 56.1% over_4.5 25.6% under_4.5 74.4%
over_5.5 13.1% under_5.5 86.9%
odd_even
odd 49.9% even 50.1%
team_home
over_1.5 48.4% under_1.5 51.6% over_2.5 22.6%
under_2.5 77.4%
team_away
over_1.5 52.2% under_1.5 47.8% over_2.5 26.0%
under_2.5 74.1%
most
home 36.2% draw 22.5% away 41.4%
handicap
home_-1.5 18.1% away_+1.5 81.9% home_-0.5 36.2%
away_+0.5 63.8% home_+0.5 58.6% away_-0.5 41.4%
home_+1.5 78.1% away_-1.5 21.9%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 53.9% under_20.5 46.1% over_22.5 39.1%
under_22.5 60.9% over_24.5 26.2% under_24.5 73.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 56.2% under_9.5 43.8% over_11.5 35.2%
under_11.5 64.8% over_13.5 18.9% under_13.5 81.1%
team_away
over_9.5 62.5% under_9.5 37.5% over_11.5 41.6%
under_11.5 58.5% over_13.5 24.0% under_13.5 76.0%
most
home 41.6% draw 7.6% away 50.8%
handicap
home_-3.5 21.6% away_+3.5 78.4% home_-0.5 41.6%
away_+0.5 58.4% home_+2.5 64.2% away_-2.5 35.8%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 7.2% no 92.8%
home
yes 5.0% no 95.0%
away
yes 2.4% no 97.6%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0097 (55560 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Beveren predictions · Lommel SK predictions · Pro League

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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