AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 27 Oct 2026

League Two
BarnetBarnetWWWWL
Full time1-1Sat, 24 Oct 202624/1015:00UK
OldhamOldhamLLDWL

Barnet 1-1 Oldham cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined50.5%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined49.5%

Result

Barnet1-1Oldham
1 yellow cardsBarnet 0, Oldham 1
1 red cardsBarnet 1, Oldham 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 50.5% and it missed (1 in the match). We called No at 77.9% and it missed (1 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards50.5%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Alan Young

Recorded match referee.

Alan Young in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 90 4
Goals 2.38 Not available
Yellow cards 4.28 Not available
Red cards 0.20 Not available
Corners 9.3 Not available
Fouls 22.9 Not available
Both teams scored 51% Not available
Over 2.5 goals 39% Not available
Home wins 43% Not available
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
24 Oct 2026 Barnet vs Oldham 1-1 2 Yes 3 1 18 16
19 Sep 2026 Colchester vs Cheltenham 1-1 2 Yes 7 1 12 27
12 Sep 2026 Gillingham vs Tranmere 2-0 2 No 5 0 10 18
5 Sep 2026 Northampton vs Newport County 1-0 1 No 5 0 2 26
31 Jan 2026 Gillingham vs Bromley 1-4 5 Yes 4 0 8 14
26 Dec 2025 Crawley Town vs Colchester 1-1 2 Yes 4 0 10 30
8 Nov 2025 Bristol Rvs vs Gillingham 0-1 1 No 5 0 15 17
18 Oct 2025 Accrington vs Swindon 4-0 4 No 3 1 8 17
11 Oct 2025 Crawley Town vs Walsall 1-1 2 Yes 4 0 11 26
13 Sep 2025 Tranmere vs Newport County 1-1 2 Yes 5 0 5 24

Alan Young referee stats

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Barnet vs Oldham. It tips Oldham for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 71.4% 28.7%
3.5 cards 50.5% 49.5%
4.5 cards 31.2% 68.8%
5.5 cards 16.9% 83.1%

Who picks up more cards

Barnet
33.6%
Level
21.4%
Oldham
45.0%

Team cards lines

Barnet

Over 1.5
50.8%
Over 2.5
24.4%

Oldham

Over 1.5
59.1%
Over 2.5
32.1%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Barnet's; Oldham gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Barnet line Barnet Oldham
-1.5 16.7% 83.3%
-0.5 33.6% 66.4%
+0.5 55.0% 45.0%
+1.5 74.7% 25.3%

Red card

Any red card22.1%
Barnet red card9.2%
Oldham red card14.1%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 78.7% 21.3%
22.5 fouls 65.6% 34.4%
24.5 fouls 50.9% 49.1%

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 50.5%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 71.4% for over 2.5 to 16.9% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 50.5%. Between the two sides, Oldham are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 45.0%, with a level count at 21.4%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

By team, Barnet over 1.5 cards sits at 50.8% and Oldham at 59.1%. A red card for either side is rated at 22.1% (Barnet 9.2%, Oldham 14.1%).

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

50.5%Over 3.5 cards
22.1%Any red card
45.0%Most cards: Oldham
50.8%Barnet over 1.5 cards
59.1%Oldham over 1.5 cards
65.6%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 50.5% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 22.1%, a live risk in this one, and a red changes every card line at once.
The DisciplinarianOldham are the pick to collect more cards at 45.0%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 50.5%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.

FAQ

How many cards in Barnet vs Oldham?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 50.5% for Barnet vs Oldham.
Will there be a red card in Barnet vs Oldham?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 22.1%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Barnet vs Oldham?
Before kickoff, the model rated Oldham to pick up more cards at 45.0%, with a level count at 21.4%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

League TwoBarnet fixtures and statsOldham fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.