AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 1 Nov 2026

Eredivisie
AZ AlkmaarAZ AlkmaarWLDLL
Sun, 8 Nov 20268/1115:45UK
GroningenGroningenDWWLD

AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen corners prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined57.6%
Under 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined42.4%

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 9.5 corners57.6%

Corners

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

The corners market rewards teams that camp in the final third, below are the model total-corner probabilities. More corners are projected for AZ Alkmaar.

Total corners

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
7.5 corners 79.1% 21.0%
8.5 corners 68.9% 31.1%
9.5 corners 57.6% 42.4%
10.5 corners 46.1% 53.9%
11.5 corners 35.3% 64.7%
12.5 corners 25.9% 74.2%

Who wins the corner count

AZ Alkmaar
58.8%
Level
9.4%
Groningen
31.9%

Team corners lines

AZ Alkmaar

Over 3.5
78.8%
Over 4.5
65.6%
Over 5.5
51.5%

Groningen

Over 3.5
61.5%
Over 4.5
45.1%
Over 5.5
30.7%

Corner handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is AZ Alkmaar's; Groningen gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

AZ Alkmaar line AZ Alkmaar Groningen
-3.5 30.1% 69.9%
-1.5 48.9% 51.1%
-0.5 58.8% 41.3%
+0.5 68.1% 31.9%
AZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar

Corner trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means AZ Alkmaar at home and Groningen away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

GroningenGroningen
Statistic
AZ Alkmaar
Groningen
Corners won per game at this venue
8.3
3.0

Corners conceded per game at this venue
3.8
6.5

First-half corners won per game
3.2
2.1

Second-half corners won per game
4.8
2.8

Matches with more corners than the opponent
77.8%
55.6%

Matches with corner data
9
9

Bar scales · Corners per game: 0–10 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Corners accuracy

How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

54.0%Best Corners call, hit rate
0.0096Calibration error
50,949Matches graded

In 24,029 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.2% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 1 Nov 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Corners calls

Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 56.0%✗ 59.8%✓ 62.5%✓ 59.6%✓ 61.1%✗ 61.7%✓ 62.6%✓ 60.3%✗ 61.3%✗ 60.6%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Frosinone vs Lecce2026-10-29Under 9.5 56.0%Miss
Fiorentina vs Atalanta2026-10-29Under 9.5 59.8%Miss
Milan vs Bologna2026-10-28Under 9.5 62.5%Hit
Parma vs Udinese2026-10-28Under 9.5 59.6%Hit
Venezia vs Inter2026-10-28Under 9.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 9.5 corners at 57.6%, its strongest read on the Corners market. The total-corners ladder runs from 79.1% for over 7.5 to 25.9% for over 12.5, with over 10.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 46.1%. On the corner count, AZ Alkmaar are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 58.8%, with a level count at 9.4%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

By team, AZ Alkmaar over 4.5 corners sits at 65.6% and Groningen at 45.1%. This season AZ Alkmaar have averaged 8.0 corners won a game and Groningen 4.9.

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.

57.6%Over 9.5 corners
58.8%Most corners: AZ Alkmaar
65.6%AZ Alkmaar over 4.5 corners
45.1%Groningen over 4.5 corners
50.0%Odd corner total

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 57.6% on Corners. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Territory ReaderAZ Alkmaar are the pick to win the corner count at 58.8%, the count usually goes the way of the side doing the attacking.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 10.5 corners: over sits at 46.1%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
AZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

GroningenGroningen
Statistic
AZ Alkmaar
Groningen
corners won per game
8.0
4.9

corners conceded per game
3.7
4.6

Bar scales · Corners per game: 0–10. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many corners in AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 57.6% for AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen.
Which team will win the corner count in AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen?
The model rates AZ Alkmaar to win the corner count at 58.8%, with a level count at 9.4%.
How many corners do AZ Alkmaar and Groningen average this season?
AZ Alkmaar have won 8.0 corners a game this season and Groningen 4.9.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Corner predictions today

Related

EredivisieAZ Alkmaar fixtures and statsGroningen fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.