AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 1 Nov 2026

Ligue 1
AuxerreAuxerreWWLWD
Sat, 7 Nov 20267/1116:15UK11°C · Clearing
Paris FCParis FCDWLWL

Auxerre vs Paris FC cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined53.8%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined46.2%

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards53.8%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Auxerre vs Paris FC. Slightly more cards are projected for Paris FC for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 74.0% 26.0%
3.5 cards 53.8% 46.2%
4.5 cards 34.3% 65.7%
5.5 cards 19.3% 80.8%

Who picks up more cards

Auxerre
28.0%
Level
20.3%
Paris FC
51.7%

Team cards lines

Auxerre

Over 1.5
48.2%
Over 2.5
22.2%

Paris FC

Over 1.5
65.3%
Over 2.5
38.6%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Auxerre's; Paris FC gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Auxerre line Auxerre Paris FC
-1.5 13.3% 86.8%
-0.5 28.0% 72.0%
+0.5 48.3% 51.7%
+1.5 68.6% 31.4%

Red card

Any red card14.0%
Auxerre red card5.8%
Paris FC red card8.7%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 74.8% 25.2%
22.5 fouls 61.5% 38.5%
24.5 fouls 47.2% 52.8%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Paris FC J. Brisard 2 4.5 3.5
Paris FC Jeremy Stinat 2 3.0 1.5

Swipe to see all referee stats →

AuxerreAuxerre

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Auxerre at home and Paris FC away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

Paris FCParis FC
Statistic
Auxerre
Paris FC
Cards per game at this venue
·
2.7

Opponent cards per game at this venue
·
1.0

Yellow cards per game
1.4
2.3

First-half yellow cards per game
0.5
0.2

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.2
1.4

Matches with more cards than the opponent
·
60.0%

Matches with card data
2
5
Red cards this season
·
0

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,950Matches graded

In 11,340 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 1 Nov 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✓ 50.6%✗ 50.7%✗ 51.1%✓ 52.0%✓ 54.1%✓ 50.1%✓ 54.7%✗ 63.6%✗ 51.1%✗ 52.8%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Frosinone vs Lecce2026-10-29Under 3.5 50.6%Hit
Fiorentina vs Atalanta2026-10-29Under 3.5 50.7%Miss
Milan vs Bologna2026-10-28Over 3.5 51.1%Miss
Parma vs Udinese2026-10-28Under 3.5 52.0%Hit
Venezia vs Inter2026-10-28Under 3.5 54.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 53.8%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 74.0% for over 2.5 to 19.3% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 53.8%. Head to head on cards, Paris FC are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 51.7%, with a level count at 20.3%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Auxerre over 1.5 cards sits at 48.2% and Paris FC at 65.3%. A red card for either side is rated at 14.0% (Auxerre 5.8%, Paris FC 8.7%). Paris FC’s most frequent referee this season, J. Brisard, has averaged 4.5 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

53.8%Over 3.5 cards
14.0%Any red card
51.7%Most cards: Paris FC
48.2%Auxerre over 1.5 cards
65.3%Paris FC over 1.5 cards
61.5%Over 22.5 fouls

We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 53.8% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherJ. Brisard, Paris FC’s most frequent referee this season, averages 4.5 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 14.0%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianParis FC are the pick to collect more cards at 51.7%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
AuxerreAuxerre

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

Paris FCParis FC
Statistic
Auxerre
Paris FC
cards per game
·
2.0

fouls per game
15.1
13.6

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Auxerre vs Paris FC?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 53.8% for Auxerre vs Paris FC.
Will there be a red card in Auxerre vs Paris FC?
The model rates a red card for either side at 14.0%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Auxerre vs Paris FC?
The model rates Paris FC to pick up more cards at 51.7%, with a level count at 20.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Ligue 1Auxerre fixtures and statsParis FC fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.