AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 4 Nov 2026

La Liga
Ath MadridAth MadridWWWWW
Sun, 8 Nov 20268/1120:00UK13°C · Rain
BarcelonaBarcelonaWWWLW

Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined54.7%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined45.3%

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards54.7%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Ath Madrid vs Barcelona. It tips Ath Madrid for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 74.3% 25.7%
3.5 cards 54.7% 45.3%
4.5 cards 35.6% 64.4%
5.5 cards 20.7% 79.3%

Who picks up more cards

Ath Madrid
43.6%
Level
20.5%
Barcelona
35.9%

Team cards lines

Ath Madrid

Over 1.5
60.3%
Over 2.5
34.0%

Barcelona

Over 1.5
54.9%
Over 2.5
28.6%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Ath Madrid's; Barcelona gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Ath Madrid line Ath Madrid Barcelona
-1.5 25.1% 75.0%
-0.5 43.6% 56.4%
+0.5 64.1% 35.9%
+1.5 80.9% 19.1%

Red card

Any red card14.6%
Ath Madrid red card11.3%
Barcelona red card3.7%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 55.6% 44.4%
22.5 fouls 40.8% 59.2%
24.5 fouls 27.7% 72.3%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Ath Madrid Alejandro Hernandez 2 6.5 4.5
Barcelona Juan Martinez Munuera 2 3.5 1.5

Swipe to see all referee stats →

Ath MadridAth Madrid

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Ath Madrid at home and Barcelona away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

BarcelonaBarcelona
Statistic
Ath Madrid
Barcelona
Cards per game at this venue
2.7
·

Opponent cards per game at this venue
2.7
·

Yellow cards per game
2.2
1.6

First-half yellow cards per game
0.9
0.6

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.3
1.0

Matches with card data
5
4

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0221Calibration error
51,107Matches graded

In 11,399 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 4 Nov 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 54.7%✓ 58.7%✗ 50.2%✓ 53.8%✗ 54.8%✗ 53.5%✗ 53.4%✗ 51.8%✓ 54.1%✓ 50.3%
4 of 10 recent calls hit.
Cardiff vs West Ham2026-11-04Over 3.5 54.7%Miss
Wrexham vs Middlesbrough2026-11-04Under 3.5 58.7%Hit
Bristol City vs Wolves2026-11-04Over 3.5 50.2%Miss
Kortrijk vs KV Mechelen2026-11-04Over 3.5 53.8%Hit
Blackburn vs Stoke2026-11-03Under 3.5 54.8%Miss
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 54.7%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 74.3% for over 2.5 to 20.7% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 54.7%. Between the two sides, Ath Madrid are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 43.6%, with a level count at 20.5%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Ath Madrid over 1.5 cards sits at 60.3% and Barcelona at 54.9%. A red card for either side is rated at 14.6% (Ath Madrid 11.3%, Barcelona 3.7%). Ath Madrid’s most frequent referee this season, Alejandro Hernandez, has averaged 6.5 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.

54.7%Over 3.5 cards
14.6%Any red card
43.6%Most cards: Ath Madrid
60.3%Ath Madrid over 1.5 cards
54.9%Barcelona over 1.5 cards
40.8%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 54.7% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherAlejandro Hernandez, Ath Madrid’s most frequent referee this season, averages 6.5 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 14.6%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianAth Madrid are the pick to collect more cards at 43.6%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
Ath MadridAth Madrid

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

BarcelonaBarcelona
Statistic
Ath Madrid
Barcelona
fouls per game
11.6
10.6

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Ath Madrid vs Barcelona?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 54.7% for Ath Madrid vs Barcelona.
Will there be a red card in Ath Madrid vs Barcelona?
The model rates a red card for either side at 14.6%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Ath Madrid vs Barcelona?
The model rates Ath Madrid to pick up more cards at 43.6%, with a level count at 20.5%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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La LigaAtletico Madrid fixtures and statsBarcelona fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.