Premier League
Aston Villa vs 
Newcastle Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 24.5 shots at 51.9%, its strongest read on the Shots market. The total-shots ladder runs from 63.5% for over 22.5 to 30.0% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 51.9%. Head to head on shots, Aston Villa are the model’s pick to have more shots at 59.2%, with a level count at 5.7%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 63.5% | 36.5% |
| 24.5 shots | 51.9% | 48.1% |
| 26.5 shots | 40.5% | 59.5% |
| 28.5 shots | 30.0% | 70.0% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
71.4%
56.1%
40.8%
55.5%
38.7%
24.7%
Shot handicap
| Aston Villa line | Aston Villa | Newcastle |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 35.9% | 64.1% |
| -2.5 | 47.4% | 52.6% |
| -0.5 | 59.2% | 40.8% |
| +0.5 | 64.9% | 35.2% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 75.9% | 24.1% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 64.8% | 35.2% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 52.8% | 47.2% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 41.1% | 58.9% |
Total shots follow which side is chasing the game, below are the model total-shot probabilities. It edges Aston Villa.
In-depth analysis
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. We grade every call after the match.
51.9%Over 24.5 shots56.1%Aston Villa over 12.5 shots38.7%Newcastle over 12.5 shots64.8%Over 7.5 on targetSplit by side, Aston Villa over 12.5 shots sits at 56.1% and Newcastle at 38.7%.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Aston Villa vs Newcastle?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 51.9% for Aston Villa vs Newcastle.
Which team will have more shots in Aston Villa vs Newcastle?
The model rates Aston Villa to take more shots at 59.2%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 12,903 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Shots actually happened 56.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 19 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Premier League, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
