Premier League
Aston Villa vs 
Newcastle Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 63.0%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 80.8% for over 2.5 to 27.0% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 43.7%. On the card count, Newcastle are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 45.3%, with a level count at 19.7%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 80.8% | 19.3% |
| 3.5 cards | 63.0% | 37.0% |
| 4.5 cards | 43.7% | 56.3% |
| 5.5 cards | 27.0% | 73.0% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
60.3%
33.2%
67.1%
40.6%
Card handicap
| Aston Villa line | Aston Villa | Newcastle |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 19.0% | 81.1% |
| -0.5 | 35.1% | 64.9% |
| +0.5 | 54.8% | 45.3% |
| +1.5 | 73.1% | 26.9% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 67.4% | 32.6% |
| 22.5 fouls | 51.7% | 48.3% |
| 24.5 fouls | 36.3% | 63.7% |
Bookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Aston Villa vs Newcastle. Slightly more cards are projected for Newcastle for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
63.0%Over 3.5 cards13.3%Any red card60.3%Aston Villa over 1.5 cards67.1%Newcastle over 1.5 cards51.7%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Aston Villa over 1.5 cards sits at 60.3% and Newcastle at 67.1%. A red card for either side is rated at 13.3% (Aston Villa 11.3%, Newcastle 2.2%).
We publish the model, not a sure thing. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Aston Villa vs Newcastle?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 63.0% for Aston Villa vs Newcastle.
Will there be a red card in Aston Villa vs Newcastle?
The model rates a red card for either side at 13.3%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Aston Villa vs Newcastle?
The model rates Newcastle to pick up more cards at 45.3%, with a level count at 19.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,117 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 19 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Premier League, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
