Premier League
Aston Villa vs 
Newcastle Correct Score
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Most likely · 11.5% at 1-1, its strongest read on the Correct Score market. That fits an open goals environment: 59.2% for over 2.5 and 81.6% for at least two goals. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Correct Score
| Scoreline | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.5% |
| 1-2 | 8.6% |
| 2-1 | 8.2% |
| 0-1 | 6.8% |
| 1-0 | 6.4% |
| 2-2 | 6.4% |
| 0-2 | 5.8% |
| 2-0 | 5.2% |
Score probability grid
| Aston Villa \ Newcastle | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5% | 7% | 6% | 3% | 1% | · |
| 1 | 6% | 11% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% |
| 2 | 5% | 8% | 6% | 3% | 1% | · |
| 3 | 3% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | · |
| 4 | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | · | · |
| 5 | · | · | · | · | · | · |
Rows = Aston Villa goals, columns = Newcastle. The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11.5%. Rather than one score, the model spreads probability across the whole grid, that distribution is the real signal. Darker cells carry more probability.
Goals distribution
How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.
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1
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4
5+
In-depth analysis
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
62.0%Both Teams to Score59.2%Over 2.5 goalsOn the goals side, the model sees 59.2% for three or more goals and 81.6% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With Newcastle favoured at 40.5%, a close contest often produces chances at both ends.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Key players
This season’s squad only, rated on recent form; a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
FAQ
What is the most likely score in Aston Villa vs Newcastle?
The model's most likely scoreline for Aston Villa vs Newcastle is 1-1 at 11.5%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Correct Score-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 20 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
More Premier League, Correct Score
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
