Brighton vs Fulham prediction & probabilities (2025-08-16)

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Brighton vs Fulham: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 30 Jun 2026

Premier League
Brighton
Sat, 16 Aug 2025vs
Fulham
Model’s top convictions

81%

Over 1.5 goals

70%

Brighton or draw

62%

Over 8.5 corners

Fairly pricedToo extreme an outsider (fair 0.24).

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
BrightonWin probability
46.0%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals80.9%High probabilityPays @ 1.24
Brighton or draw70.1%Strong chancePays @ 1.43
Over 8.5 corners61.5%Strong chancePays @ 1.63

Model read

▾

A measured edge to Brighton: 46% is the model's line for this Premier League meeting on 16 August 2025. Three angles decide this preview: 1) Worth knowing: bookmakers rate Brighton higher (50%) than our model does. 2) No strong lean on goals (58% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. 3) For shots markets, Danny Welbeck is the obvious watch at 1.0 on target per 90 in recent data. History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 1 wins for Brighton, 1 draws and 3 for Fulham at 2.6 goals per match. Squad notes: Brighton have Webster ruled out, Mitoma ruled out, Tzimas ruled out; Fulham have Andersen suspended. The run in: Brighton arrive W4 D1 L1, Fulham W2 D0 L4. Discipline says sit it out: too extreme an outsider (fair 0.24).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners41.3%@ 2.42
Over 11.5 corners32.3%@ 3.10
Medium risk

Both teams to score60.6%@ 1.65
Over 2.5 goals58.2%@ 1.72
Draw or Fulham54.0%@ 1.85
Random finds

1-1 correct score11.5%@ 8.70
2-1 correct score9.2%@ 10.87
1-0 correct score7.6%@ 13.09

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Brighton

46.0%-4.2%

Draw

24.1%-1.7%

Fulham

29.9%+5.9%

ModelMarket

too extreme an outsider (fair 0.24)

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.580.9%

High probability

Over 2.558.2%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes60.6%

Strong chance

Corners markets

Over 8.561.5%

Strong chance

Over 9.551.2%

Good chance

Over 10.541.3%

Toss-up

Over 11.532.3%

Toss-up

Most cornersBrighton48.5%Fulham41.0%

Shots markets

Over 22.565.6%

Strong chance

Over 24.554.2%

Good chance

Over 26.542.7%

Reasonable chance

Over 28.532.1%

Toss-up

Totals line guide

0.5·1.580.9%2.558.2%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.580.9%

Discipline: Fairly priced. Too extreme an outsider (fair 0.24).

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Danny WelbeckBrighton · key player
To score29.2%

@ 3.42

1+ on target52.4%

@ 1.91

2+ shots51.1%

@ 1.96

Shots/90 2.33SoT/90 1.01Goals/90 0.47
Rodrigo MunizFulham · key player
To score15.9%

@ 6.29

1+ on target36.9%

@ 2.71

2+ shots40.3%

@ 2.48

Shots/90 3.37SoT/90 1.12Goals/90 0.42
João PedroBrighton · in form
To score31.2%

@ 3.21

1+ on target52.3%

@ 1.91

2+ shots51.9%

@ 1.93

Shots/90 2.14SoT/90 0.91Goals/90 0.46
Reiss NelsonFulham · in form
To score8.5%

@ 11.76

1+ on target42.0%

@ 2.38

2+ shots26.4%

@ 3.79

Shots/90 2.02SoT/90 1.1Goals/90 0.18
Matt O'RileyBrighton · in form
To score10.6%

@ 9.43

1+ on target28.4%

@ 3.52

2+ shots25.0%

@ 4.00

Shots/90 2.07SoT/90 0.72Goals/90 0.24
Harry WilsonFulham · in form
To score23.1%

@ 4.33

1+ on target49.8%

@ 2.01

2+ shots58.9%

@ 1.70

Shots/90 2.79SoT/90 0.97Goals/90 0.37

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Brighton win2.22
Draw4.02
Fulham win3.33
Both teams to score1.65

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.06
Over 1.5 goals1.24
Over 2.5 goals1.72
Over 3.5 goals2.79
Brighton most2.22
Fulham most3.33

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.32
Over 8.5 corners1.54
Over 9.5 corners1.88
Over 10.5 corners2.41
Brighton most2.06
Fulham most2.43

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.30
Over 3.5 cards1.73
Over 4.5 cards2.62
Over 5.5 cards4.49
Brighton most3.56
Fulham most1.91

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.30
Over 7.5 SoT1.52
Over 8.5 SoT1.86
Over 9.5 SoT2.37
Brighton most1.88
Fulham most2.86

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.53
Over 24.5 shots1.85
Over 26.5 shots2.34
Over 28.5 shots3.11
Brighton most1.80
Fulham most2.59

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.73
Over 22.5 fouls2.40
Over 24.5 fouls3.69

Team news

Most likely availability, voted across independent sources. A model input, not a confirmed lineup.

  • WebsterBrightonOut0% to play
  • MitomaBrightonOut0% to play
  • TzimasBrightonOut0% to play
  • AndersenFulhamSuspended0% to play
  • Kusi-AsareFulhamOut0% to play
  • Kevin, Kenny TeteFulhamOut
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 76.7% Over 7.5 65.7% Over 8.5 53.8% Over 9.5 42.1%
Most: Brighton 53.2% Most: Fulham 34.9%
Brighton Over 4.2 52.7% Fulham Over 4.2 39.5%

Cards

Over 2.5 76.9% Over 3.5 57.6% Over 4.5 38.1%
Most: Brighton 28.1% Most: Fulham 52.3%
Brighton Over 1.8 50.8% Fulham Over 1.8 67.9%

Brighton: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Danny Welbeck 2.33 1.01 0.47 52.4% 51.1% 29.2%
João Pedro 2.14 0.91 0.46 52.3% 51.9% 31.2%
Matt O'Riley 2.07 0.72 0.24 28.4% 25.0% 10.6%
Brajan Gruda 1.74 0.71 0.13 24.7% 15.4% 5.1%
Georginio Rutter 2.39 0.68 0.21 35.3% 45.3% 12.6%

Fulham: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Rodrigo Muniz 3.37 1.12 0.42 36.9% 40.3% 15.9%
Reiss Nelson 2.02 1.1 0.18 42.0% 26.4% 8.5%
Harry Wilson 2.79 0.97 0.37 49.8% 58.9% 23.1%
Raúl Jiménez 3.2 0.95 0.4 49.2% 66.5% 24.8%
Kevin 2.25 0.9 0.09 32.0% 25.1% 3.8%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Brighton clean sheet 26.0%
Fulham clean sheet 18.6%
Brighton win to nil 20.6%
Fulham win to nil 13.1%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 45.0% draw 24.9% away 30.0%
double_chance
1X 69.9% 12 75.1% X2 54.9%
dnb
home 60.0% away 40.0%
btts
yes 60.6% no 39.4%
clean_sheet
home 26.2% away 18.6%
win_to_nil
home 20.8% away 13.2%
winning_margin
home_by_1 21.1% home_by_2 13.8% home_by_3plus 10.2%
away_by_1 16.7% away_by_2 8.7% away_by_3plus 4.7%
correct_score
0-0 5.5% 0-1 6.0% 0-2 4.4%
0-3 2.0% 0-4 0.7% 0-5 0.2%
1-0 7.6% 1-1 11.5% 1-2 7.3%
1-3 3.3% 1-4 1.1% 1-5 0.3%
2-0 6.9% 2-1 9.2% 2-2 6.2%
2-3 2.8% 2-4 0.9% 2-5 0.3%
3-0 3.9% 3-1 5.2% 3-2 3.5%
3-3 1.6% 3-4 0.5% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 1.6% 4-1 2.2% 4-2 1.5%
4-3 0.7% 4-4 0.2% 4-5 0.1%
5-0 0.5% 5-1 0.7% 5-2 0.5%
5-3 0.2% 5-4 0.1% 5-5 0.0%
other 1.1%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 94.6% under_0.5 5.5% over_1.5 80.9%
under_1.5 19.1% over_2.5 58.2% under_2.5 41.8%
over_3.5 35.9% under_3.5 64.1% over_4.5 19.0%
under_4.5 81.0% over_5.5 8.7% under_5.5 91.3%
odd_even
odd 48.8% even 51.2%
team_home
over_0.5 81.4% under_0.5 18.6% over_1.5 50.2%
under_1.5 49.8% over_2.5 23.9% under_2.5 76.1%
team_away
over_0.5 73.8% under_0.5 26.2% over_1.5 38.8%
under_1.5 61.3% over_2.5 15.3% under_2.5 84.7%
most
home 45.0% draw 24.9% away 30.0%
handicap
home_-2.5 10.2% away_+2.5 89.8% home_-1.5 24.0%
away_+1.5 76.0% home_-0.5 45.0% away_+0.5 55.0%
home_+0.5 70.0% away_-0.5 30.0% home_+1.5 86.6%
away_-1.5 13.4% home_+2.5 95.3% away_-2.5 4.7%
total_exact
exact_0 5.5% exact_1 13.6% exact_2 22.7%
exact_3 22.3% exact_4 16.9% exact_5 10.3%
exact_6 5.2% exact_7plus 3.5%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 36.4% draw 39.2% away 24.4%
total
over_0.5 73.5% under_0.5 26.5% over_1.5 38.3%
under_1.5 61.7% over_2.5 15.0% under_2.5 85.1%
btts
yes 23.1% no 77.0%
total_exact
exact_0 26.5% exact_1 35.2% exact_2 23.4%
exact_3 10.4% exact_4plus 4.6%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 37.3% draw 32.3% away 30.3%
total
over_0.5 84.1% under_0.5 15.9% over_1.5 54.9%
under_1.5 45.1% over_2.5 28.0% under_2.5 72.0%
btts
yes 36.0% no 64.0%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 27.9% H/D 5.7% H/A 2.8%
D/H 14.6% D/D 12.7% D/A 11.9%
A/H 2.8% A/D 4.8% A/A 16.8%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 75.8% under_7.5 24.2% over_8.5 64.9%
under_8.5 35.1% over_9.5 53.1% under_9.5 46.9%
over_10.5 41.5% under_10.5 58.5% over_11.5 30.9%
under_11.5 69.1% over_12.5 22.0% under_12.5 78.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 71.4% under_3.5 28.6% over_4.5 56.1%
under_4.5 43.9% over_5.5 41.2% under_5.5 58.8%
team_away
over_3.5 66.5% under_3.5 33.5% over_4.5 50.4%
under_4.5 49.6% over_5.5 35.5% under_5.5 64.5%
most
home 48.6% draw 10.3% away 41.1%
handicap
home_-3.5 20.9% away_+3.5 79.1% home_-1.5 38.4%
away_+1.5 61.6% home_-0.5 48.6% away_+0.5 51.4%
home_+0.5 58.9% away_-0.5 41.1% home_+1.5 68.7%
away_-1.5 31.4% home_+3.5 84.2% away_-3.5 15.8%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 65.6% under_22.5 34.4% over_24.5 54.2%
under_24.5 45.8% over_26.5 42.7% under_26.5 57.3%
over_28.5 32.1% under_28.5 67.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 70.7% under_10.5 29.3% over_12.5 55.2%
under_12.5 44.8% over_14.5 40.0% under_14.5 60.0%
team_away
over_10.5 59.6% under_10.5 40.4% over_12.5 42.9%
under_12.5 57.1% over_14.5 28.4% under_14.5 71.6%
most
home 55.7% draw 5.7% away 38.6%
handicap
home_-4.5 32.8% away_+4.5 67.2% home_-2.5 44.0%
away_+2.5 56.0% home_-0.5 55.7% away_+0.5 44.3%
home_+0.5 61.4% away_-0.5 38.6% home_+2.5 72.0%
away_-2.5 28.0% home_+4.5 81.0% away_-4.5 19.0%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 76.7% under_6.5 23.3% over_7.5 65.7%
under_7.5 34.3% over_8.5 53.8% under_8.5 46.2%
over_9.5 42.1% under_9.5 57.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 69.0% under_3.5 31.0% over_4.5 52.8%
under_4.5 47.3% over_5.5 37.4% under_5.5 62.6%
team_away
over_3.5 57.0% under_3.5 43.0% over_4.5 39.5%
under_4.5 60.5% over_5.5 25.1% under_5.5 74.9%
most
home 53.2% draw 11.9% away 34.9%
handicap
home_-2.5 29.9% away_+2.5 70.1% home_-0.5 53.2%
away_+0.5 46.8% home_+0.5 65.1% away_-0.5 34.9%
home_+2.5 84.1% away_-2.5 15.9%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 76.9% under_2.5 23.1% over_3.5 57.6%
under_3.5 42.4% over_4.5 38.1% under_4.5 61.9%
over_5.5 22.3% under_5.5 77.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 50.8% under_1.5 49.2% over_2.5 24.4%
under_2.5 75.6%
team_away
over_1.5 67.9% under_1.5 32.1% over_2.5 41.6%
under_2.5 58.4%
most
home 28.1% draw 19.7% away 52.3%
handicap
home_-1.5 13.6% away_+1.5 86.4% home_-0.5 28.1%
away_+0.5 71.9% home_+0.5 47.7% away_-0.5 52.3%
home_+1.5 67.7% away_-1.5 32.4%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 58.0% under_20.5 42.1% over_22.5 41.7%
under_22.5 58.4% over_24.5 27.1% under_24.5 72.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 55.2% under_9.5 44.9% over_11.5 32.1%
under_11.5 67.9% over_13.5 15.4% under_13.5 84.6%
team_away
over_9.5 70.4% under_9.5 29.6% over_11.5 48.2%
under_11.5 51.8% over_13.5 27.8% under_13.5 72.2%
most
home 34.6% draw 7.9% away 57.4%
handicap
home_-3.5 15.4% away_+3.5 84.6% home_-0.5 34.6%
away_+0.5 65.4% home_+2.5 59.0% away_-2.5 41.0%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 13.3% no 86.7%
home
yes 6.1% no 94.0%
away
yes 7.7% no 92.3%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Brighton predictions · Fulham predictions · Premier League

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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