Shots

Over 22.5	63.5%	Over 24.5	52.0%	Over 26.5	40.6%	Over 28.5	30.2%
Most: Nottingham Forest	60.7%	Most: Coventry	33.8%
Nottingham Forest Over 13.2	49.5%	Coventry Over 13.2	30.4%

Shots on target

Over 6.5	66.6%	Over 7.5	54.1%	Over 8.5	41.9%	Over 9.5	30.9%
Most: Nottingham Forest	51.4%	Most: Coventry	36.0%
Nottingham Forest Over 4.2	43.3%	Coventry Over 4.2	32.3%

Cards

Over 2.5	71.2%	Over 3.5	50.2%	Over 4.5	30.9%
Most: Nottingham Forest	32.5%	Most: Coventry	46.1%
Nottingham Forest Over 1.8	49.8%	Coventry Over 1.8	59.7%

Nottingham Forest: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player	Shots/90	SoT/90	Goals/90	1+ SoT	2+ shots	To score
Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga	2.38	1.16	0.51	58.0%	53.1%	31.7%
Liam Delap	2.67	1.02	0.32	47.3%	49.9%	18.2%
Chris Wood	2.02	0.91	0.52	52.2%	48.7%	34.4%
Igor Jesus	2.67	0.83	0.24	44.3%	56.1%	15.6%
Morgan Gibbs-White	2.14	0.76	0.33	51.1%	59.8%	26.7%

Coventry: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player	Shots/90	SoT/90	Goals/90	1+ SoT	2+ shots	To score
Taiwo Awoniyi	2.65	1.15	0.44	25.6%	14.9%	10.7%
Sidiki Chérif	2.03	0.84	0.28	39.3%	33.9%	15.3%
Loum Tchaouna	2.2	0.72	0.13	26.1%	23.6%	5.3%
Frank Onyeka	0.77	0.22	0	16.4%	13.0%	0.0%
Ethan Pinnock	0.39	0.17	0.09	14.5%	5.1%	8.0%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Nottingham Forest clean sheet	37.2%
Coventry clean sheet	17.6%
Nottingham Forest win to nil	30.0%
Coventry win to nil	10.5%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated

1×2

home	54.6%	draw	24.8%	away	20.7%

double_chance

1X	79.3%	12	75.2%	X2	45.4%

dnb

home	72.5%	away	27.5%

btts

yes	52.0%	no	48.0%

clean_sheet

home	37.5%	away	17.6%

win_to_nil

home	30.3%	away	10.5%

winning_margin

home_by_1	23.9%	home_by_2	17.0%	home_by_3plus	13.8%
away_by_1	13.2%	away_by_2	5.4%	away_by_3plus	2.0%

correct_score

0-0	7.2%	0-1	5.9%	0-2	3.2%
0-3	1.0%	0-4	0.3%	0-5	0.1%
1-0	10.9%	1-1	11.8%	1-2	5.5%
1-3	1.8%	1-4	0.4%	1-5	0.1%
2-0	10.0%	2-1	9.8%	2-2	4.8%
2-3	1.6%	2-4	0.4%	2-5	0.1%
3-0	5.8%	3-1	5.7%	3-2	2.8%
3-3	0.9%	3-4	0.2%	3-5	0.0%
4-0	2.5%	4-1	2.5%	4-2	1.2%
4-3	0.4%	4-4	0.1%	4-5	0.0%
5-0	0.9%	5-1	0.9%	5-2	0.4%
5-3	0.1%	5-4	0.0%	5-5	0.0%
other	0.9%

likeliest_score

h	100.0%	a	100.0%	p	11.8%

Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated

total

over_0.5	92.8%	under_0.5	7.2%	over_1.5	76.0%
under_1.5	24.0%	over_2.5	51.1%	under_2.5	48.9%
over_3.5	29.0%	under_3.5	71.0%	over_4.5	14.0%
under_4.5	86.0%	over_5.5	5.8%	under_5.5	94.2%

odd_even

odd	48.7%	even	51.3%

team_home

over_0.5	82.4%	under_0.5	17.6%	over_1.5	51.8%
under_1.5	48.2%	over_2.5	25.3%	under_2.5	74.8%

team_away

over_0.5	62.5%	under_0.5	37.5%	over_1.5	25.7%
under_1.5	74.3%	over_2.5	7.7%	under_2.5	92.3%

most

home	54.6%	draw	24.8%	away	20.7%

handicap

home_-2.5	13.8%	away_+2.5	86.3%	home_-1.5	30.7%
away_+1.5	69.3%	home_-0.5	54.6%	away_+0.5	45.4%
home_+0.5	79.3%	away_-0.5	20.7%	home_+1.5	92.6%
away_-1.5	7.4%	home_+2.5	98.0%	away_-2.5	2.0%

total_exact

exact_0	7.2%	exact_1	16.8%	exact_2	25.0%
exact_3	22.1%	exact_4	15.0%	exact_5	8.2%
exact_6	3.7%	exact_7plus	2.1%

First half range, not a point

1×2

home	45.9%	draw	42.2%	away	11.9%

total

over_0.5	65.6%	under_0.5	34.4%	over_1.5	28.9%
under_1.5	71.1%	over_2.5	9.3%	under_2.5	90.7%

btts

yes	13.1%	no	87.0%

total_exact

exact_0	34.4%	exact_1	36.7%	exact_2	19.6%
exact_3	7.0%	exact_4plus	2.3%

Second half range, not a point

1×2

home	52.9%	draw	32.5%	away	14.6%

total

over_0.5	79.4%	under_0.5	20.6%	over_1.5	46.8%
under_1.5	53.2%	over_2.5	21.1%	under_2.5	78.9%

btts

yes	24.5%	no	75.5%

Half-time / full-time range, not a point

H/H	41.1%	H/D	3.9%	H/A	0.9%
D/H	22.3%	D/D	13.7%	D/A	6.2%
A/H	2.5%	A/D	3.3%	A/A	6.1%

Corners range, not a point

total

over_7.5	74.0%	under_7.5	26.0%	over_8.5	62.9%
under_8.5	37.1%	over_9.5	51.2%	under_9.5	48.8%
over_10.5	39.8%	under_10.5	60.2%	over_11.5	29.6%
under_11.5	70.4%	over_12.5	21.1%	under_12.5	78.9%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	72.2%	under_3.5	27.8%	over_4.5	57.5%
under_4.5	42.6%	over_5.5	42.9%	under_5.5	57.1%

team_away

over_3.5	62.2%	under_3.5	37.8%	over_4.5	45.9%
under_4.5	54.1%	over_5.5	31.5%	under_5.5	68.5%

most

home	52.5%	draw	10.1%	away	37.4%

handicap

home_-3.5	24.0%	away_+3.5	76.0%	home_-1.5	42.2%
away_+1.5	57.8%	home_-0.5	52.5%	away_+0.5	47.5%
home_+0.5	62.6%	away_-0.5	37.4%	home_+1.5	71.9%
away_-1.5	28.1%	home_+3.5	86.2%	away_-3.5	13.8%

Shots range, not a point

total

over_22.5	63.5%	under_22.5	36.5%	over_24.5	52.0%
under_24.5	48.0%	over_26.5	40.6%	under_26.5	59.4%
over_28.5	30.2%	under_28.5	69.8%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_10.5	72.2%	under_10.5	27.8%	over_12.5	57.1%
under_12.5	42.9%	over_14.5	42.0%	under_14.5	58.0%

team_away

over_10.5	54.4%	under_10.5	45.6%	over_12.5	37.7%
under_12.5	62.3%	over_14.5	24.0%	under_14.5	76.1%

most

home	60.7%	draw	5.6%	away	33.8%

handicap

home_-4.5	37.5%	away_+4.5	62.5%	home_-2.5	49.0%
away_+2.5	51.0%	home_-0.5	60.7%	away_+0.5	39.3%
home_+0.5	66.2%	away_-0.5	33.8%	home_+2.5	76.2%
away_-2.5	23.8%	home_+4.5	84.3%	away_-4.5	15.7%

Shots on target range, not a point

total

over_6.5	66.6%	under_6.5	33.4%	over_7.5	54.1%
under_7.5	45.9%	over_8.5	41.9%	under_8.5	58.1%
over_9.5	30.9%	under_9.5	69.1%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	60.2%	under_3.5	39.8%	over_4.5	43.3%
under_4.5	56.7%	over_5.5	28.8%	under_5.5	71.2%

team_away

over_3.5	49.3%	under_3.5	50.7%	over_4.5	32.3%
under_4.5	67.7%	over_5.5	19.5%	under_5.5	80.6%

most

home	51.4%	draw	12.6%	away	36.0%

handicap

home_-2.5	27.4%	away_+2.5	72.7%	home_-0.5	51.4%
away_+0.5	48.6%	home_+0.5	64.0%	away_-0.5	36.0%
home_+2.5	84.1%	away_-2.5	15.9%

Cards calibrated

total

over_2.5	71.2%	under_2.5	28.8%	over_3.5	50.2%
under_3.5	49.8%	over_4.5	30.9%	under_4.5	69.1%
over_5.5	16.7%	under_5.5	83.3%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_1.5	49.8%	under_1.5	50.2%	over_2.5	23.5%
under_2.5	76.5%

team_away

over_1.5	59.7%	under_1.5	40.3%	over_2.5	32.6%
under_2.5	67.4%

most

home	32.6%	draw	21.4%	away	46.1%

handicap

home_-1.5	16.0%	away_+1.5	84.0%	home_-0.5	32.6%
away_+0.5	67.5%	home_+0.5	53.9%	away_-0.5	46.1%
home_+1.5	73.8%	away_-1.5	26.2%

Fouls calibrated

total

over_20.5	65.0%	under_20.5	35.0%	over_22.5	49.0%
under_22.5	51.0%	over_24.5	33.7%	under_24.5	66.3%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_9.5	64.1%	under_9.5	35.9%	over_11.5	41.0%
under_11.5	59.0%	over_13.5	21.9%	under_13.5	78.1%

team_away

over_9.5	71.6%	under_9.5	28.4%	over_11.5	49.7%
under_11.5	50.3%	over_13.5	29.0%	under_13.5	71.0%

most

home	40.0%	draw	8.0%	away	52.0%

handicap

home_-3.5	19.4%	away_+3.5	80.6%	home_-0.5	40.0%
away_+0.5	60.0%	home_+2.5	63.9%	away_-2.5	36.1%

Red card range, not a point

any

yes	8.2%	no	91.9%

home

yes	1.0%	no	99.0%

away

yes	7.2%	no	92.8%