Shots

Over 22.5	59.1%	Over 24.5	47.4%	Over 26.5	36.2%	Over 28.5	26.2%
Most: Brighton	57.7%	Most: Arsenal	36.5%
Brighton Over 13.2	44.1%	Arsenal Over 13.2	29.4%

Shots on target

Over 6.5	67.6%	Over 7.5	55.2%	Over 8.5	43.0%	Over 9.5	32.0%
Most: Brighton	45.2%	Most: Arsenal	42.1%
Brighton Over 4.2	39.8%	Arsenal Over 4.2	37.5%

Cards

Over 2.5	72.8%	Over 3.5	52.2%	Over 4.5	32.8%
Most: Brighton	39.1%	Most: Arsenal	39.6%
Brighton Over 1.8	56.2%	Arsenal Over 1.8	56.5%

Brighton: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player	Shots/90	SoT/90	Goals/90	1+ SoT	2+ shots	To score
Charalampos Kostoulas	4.6	1.69	0.46	35.7%	33.7%	11.3%
Ibrahim Osman	2.71	0.81	0	29.6%	32.8%	0.0%
Georginio Rutter	2.28	0.65	0.21	35.1%	44.7%	13.0%
Diego Gómez	1.93	0.59	0.18	31.7%	35.5%	11.0%
Matt O'Riley	1.6	0.53	0.19	22.5%	18.0%	8.7%

Arsenal: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player	Shots/90	SoT/90	Goals/90	1+ SoT	2+ shots	To score
Bukayo Saka	3.16	1.1	0.34	58.2%	71.3%	23.6%
Noni Madueke	2.67	0.95	0.17	44.1%	48.6%	9.9%
Eberechi Eze	3.12	0.93	0.3	48.7%	65.5%	19.4%
Kai Havertz	2.53	0.92	0.4	51.2%	58.6%	26.8%
Viktor Gyokeres	2.19	0.87	0.56	44.6%	43.8%	31.7%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Brighton clean sheet	22.3%
Arsenal clean sheet	33.3%
Brighton win to nil	14.2%
Arsenal win to nil	25.2%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated

1×2

home	27.1%	draw	27.0%	away	45.9%

double_chance

1X	54.1%	12	73.0%	X2	72.9%

dnb

home	37.1%	away	62.9%

btts

yes	52.3%	no	47.7%

clean_sheet

home	22.3%	away	33.5%

win_to_nil

home	14.2%	away	25.4%

winning_margin

home_by_1	16.4%	home_by_2	7.5%	home_by_3plus	3.2%
away_by_1	22.7%	away_by_2	14.1%	away_by_3plus	9.2%

correct_score

0-0	8.1%	0-1	10.6%	0-2	8.4%
0-3	4.2%	0-4	1.6%	0-5	0.5%
1-0	7.6%	1-1	12.9%	1-2	9.2%
1-3	4.6%	1-4	1.7%	1-5	0.5%
2-0	4.5%	2-1	6.7%	2-2	5.0%
2-3	2.5%	2-4	1.0%	2-5	0.3%
3-0	1.6%	3-1	2.5%	3-2	1.8%
3-3	0.9%	3-4	0.4%	3-5	0.1%
4-0	0.4%	4-1	0.7%	4-2	0.5%
4-3	0.3%	4-4	0.1%	4-5	0.0%
5-0	0.1%	5-1	0.2%	5-2	0.1%
5-3	0.1%	5-4	0.0%	5-5	0.0%
other	0.5%

likeliest_score

h	100.0%	a	100.0%	p	12.9%

Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated

total

over_0.5	91.9%	under_0.5	8.1%	over_1.5	73.8%
under_1.5	26.2%	over_2.5	48.0%	under_2.5	52.0%
over_3.5	26.3%	under_3.5	73.7%	over_4.5	12.2%
under_4.5	87.8%	over_5.5	4.9%	under_5.5	95.1%

odd_even

odd	48.5%	even	51.5%

team_home

over_0.5	66.5%	under_0.5	33.5%	over_1.5	29.9%
under_1.5	70.1%	over_2.5	9.9%	under_2.5	90.1%

team_away

over_0.5	77.7%	under_0.5	22.3%	over_1.5	44.2%
under_1.5	55.8%	over_2.5	19.1%	under_2.5	80.9%

most

home	27.1%	draw	27.0%	away	45.9%

handicap

home_-2.5	3.2%	away_+2.5	96.8%	home_-1.5	10.7%
away_+1.5	89.3%	home_-0.5	27.1%	away_+0.5	72.9%
home_+0.5	54.1%	away_-0.5	45.9%	home_+1.5	76.7%
away_-1.5	23.3%	home_+2.5	90.8%	away_-2.5	9.2%

total_exact

exact_0	8.1%	exact_1	18.1%	exact_2	25.7%
exact_3	21.7%	exact_4	14.1%	exact_5	7.3%
exact_6	3.2%	exact_7plus	1.7%

First half range, not a point

1×2

home	20.3%	draw	40.7%	away	39.1%

total

over_0.5	70.7%	under_0.5	29.3%	over_1.5	34.7%
under_1.5	65.3%	over_2.5	12.6%	under_2.5	87.4%

btts

yes	19.8%	no	80.2%

total_exact

exact_0	29.3%	exact_1	36.0%	exact_2	22.1%
exact_3	9.0%	exact_4plus	3.6%

Second half range, not a point

1×2

home	26.2%	draw	39.3%	away	34.5%

total

over_0.5	73.6%	under_0.5	26.4%	over_1.5	38.4%
under_1.5	61.6%	over_2.5	15.0%	under_2.5	85.0%

btts

yes	23.4%	no	76.6%

Half-time / full-time range, not a point

H/H	14.3%	H/D	4.2%	H/A	1.8%
D/H	10.6%	D/D	16.0%	D/A	14.0%
A/H	1.9%	A/D	5.7%	A/A	31.4%

Corners range, not a point

total

over_7.5	71.7%	under_7.5	28.3%	over_8.5	60.2%
under_8.5	39.8%	over_9.5	48.3%	under_9.5	51.7%
over_10.5	37.0%	under_10.5	63.0%	over_11.5	27.1%
under_11.5	72.9%	over_12.5	18.9%	under_12.5	81.1%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	68.5%	under_3.5	31.5%	over_4.5	53.0%
under_4.5	47.0%	over_5.5	38.3%	under_5.5	61.7%

team_away

over_3.5	63.2%	under_3.5	36.8%	over_4.5	47.0%
under_4.5	53.0%	over_5.5	32.5%	under_5.5	67.5%

most

home	48.7%	draw	10.4%	away	40.9%

handicap

home_-3.5	20.8%	away_+3.5	79.2%	home_-1.5	38.4%
away_+1.5	61.6%	home_-0.5	48.7%	away_+0.5	51.3%
home_+0.5	59.1%	away_-0.5	40.9%	home_+1.5	68.9%
away_-1.5	31.1%	home_+3.5	84.4%	away_-3.5	15.6%

Shots range, not a point

total

over_22.5	59.1%	under_22.5	40.9%	over_24.5	47.4%
under_24.5	52.6%	over_26.5	36.2%	under_26.5	63.8%
over_28.5	26.2%	under_28.5	73.8%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_10.5	67.7%	under_10.5	32.3%	over_12.5	51.8%
under_12.5	48.2%	over_14.5	36.8%	under_14.5	63.2%

team_away

over_10.5	53.3%	under_10.5	46.7%	over_12.5	36.6%
under_12.5	63.4%	over_14.5	23.1%	under_14.5	76.9%

most

home	57.7%	draw	5.8%	away	36.5%

handicap

home_-4.5	34.2%	away_+4.5	65.8%	home_-2.5	45.8%
away_+2.5	54.2%	home_-0.5	57.7%	away_+0.5	42.3%
home_+0.5	63.5%	away_-0.5	36.5%	home_+2.5	74.0%
away_-2.5	26.0%	home_+4.5	82.7%	away_-4.5	17.3%

Shots on target range, not a point

total

over_6.5	67.6%	under_6.5	32.4%	over_7.5	55.2%
under_7.5	44.8%	over_8.5	43.0%	under_8.5	57.0%
over_9.5	32.0%	under_9.5	68.0%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	56.9%	under_3.5	43.1%	over_4.5	39.8%
under_4.5	60.2%	over_5.5	25.7%	under_5.5	74.3%

team_away

over_3.5	54.6%	under_3.5	45.4%	over_4.5	37.5%
under_4.5	62.5%	over_5.5	23.8%	under_5.5	76.3%

most

home	45.2%	draw	12.7%	away	42.1%

handicap

home_-2.5	22.6%	away_+2.5	77.4%	home_-0.5	45.2%
away_+0.5	54.8%	home_+0.5	58.0%	away_-0.5	42.1%
home_+2.5	79.8%	away_-2.5	20.2%

Cards calibrated

total

over_2.5	72.8%	under_2.5	27.2%	over_3.5	52.3%
under_3.5	47.8%	over_4.5	32.8%	under_4.5	67.2%
over_5.5	18.2%	under_5.5	81.9%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_1.5	56.2%	under_1.5	43.8%	over_2.5	29.2%
under_2.5	70.8%

team_away

over_1.5	56.5%	under_1.5	43.5%	over_2.5	29.5%
under_2.5	70.5%

most

home	39.1%	draw	21.3%	away	39.6%

handicap

home_-1.5	20.9%	away_+1.5	79.1%	home_-0.5	39.1%
away_+0.5	60.9%	home_+0.5	60.4%	away_-0.5	39.6%
home_+1.5	78.7%	away_-1.5	21.3%

Fouls calibrated

total

over_20.5	61.8%	under_20.5	38.2%	over_22.5	45.6%
under_22.5	54.4%	over_24.5	30.6%	under_24.5	69.4%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_9.5	71.7%	under_9.5	28.3%	over_11.5	49.8%
under_11.5	50.2%	over_13.5	29.1%	under_13.5	70.9%

team_away

over_9.5	59.3%	under_9.5	40.7%	over_11.5	36.1%
under_11.5	63.9%	over_13.5	18.1%	under_13.5	81.9%

most

home	55.6%	draw	7.9%	away	36.4%

handicap

home_-3.5	31.8%	away_+3.5	68.2%	home_-0.5	55.6%
away_+0.5	44.4%	home_+2.5	77.6%	away_-2.5	22.4%

Red card range, not a point

any

yes	8.8%	no	91.2%

home

yes	3.5%	no	96.5%

away

yes	5.5%	no	94.5%