Premier League
Brighton vs 
Arsenal Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 52.2%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 72.8% for over 2.5 to 18.2% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 52.3%. Head to head on cards, Arsenal are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 39.6%, with a level count at 21.3%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 72.8% | 27.2% |
| 3.5 cards | 52.3% | 47.8% |
| 4.5 cards | 32.8% | 67.2% |
| 5.5 cards | 18.2% | 81.9% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
56.2%
29.2%
56.5%
29.5%
Card handicap
| Brighton line | Brighton | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 20.9% | 79.1% |
| -0.5 | 39.1% | 60.9% |
| +0.5 | 60.4% | 39.6% |
| +1.5 | 78.7% | 21.3% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 61.8% | 38.2% |
| 22.5 fouls | 45.6% | 54.4% |
| 24.5 fouls | 30.6% | 69.4% |
Card markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Brighton vs Arsenal. It tips Arsenal for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
52.3%Over 3.5 cards8.8%Any red card56.2%Brighton over 1.5 cards56.5%Arsenal over 1.5 cards45.6%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Brighton over 1.5 cards sits at 56.2% and Arsenal at 56.5%. A red card for either side is rated at 8.8% (Brighton 3.5%, Arsenal 5.5%).
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Brighton vs Arsenal?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 52.3% for Brighton vs Arsenal.
Will there be a red card in Brighton vs Arsenal?
The model rates a red card for either side at 8.8%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Brighton vs Arsenal?
The model rates Arsenal to pick up more cards at 39.6%, with a level count at 21.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 11,114 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 17 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Premier League, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
