Premier League
Everton vs 
Ipswich Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 49.9%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 70.9% for over 2.5 to 16.5% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 49.9%. On the card count, Ipswich are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 43.6%, with a level count at 21.6%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 70.9% | 29.1% |
| 3.5 cards | 49.9% | 50.1% |
| 4.5 cards | 30.7% | 69.3% |
| 5.5 cards | 16.5% | 83.5% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
51.4%
24.9%
57.9%
30.8%
Card handicap
| Everton line | Everton | Ipswich |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 17.6% | 82.4% |
| -0.5 | 34.8% | 65.2% |
| +0.5 | 56.4% | 43.6% |
| +1.5 | 75.9% | 24.1% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 58.1% | 41.9% |
| 22.5 fouls | 41.8% | 58.2% |
| 24.5 fouls | 27.2% | 72.8% |
Bookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Everton vs Ipswich. Slightly more cards are projected for Ipswich for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
49.9%Over 3.5 cards17.1%Any red card51.4%Everton over 1.5 cards57.9%Ipswich over 1.5 cards41.8%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Everton over 1.5 cards sits at 51.4% and Ipswich at 57.9%. A red card for either side is rated at 17.1% (Everton 15.1%, Ipswich 2.3%).
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Everton vs Ipswich?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 49.9% for Everton vs Ipswich.
Will there be a red card in Everton vs Ipswich?
The model rates a red card for either side at 17.1%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Everton vs Ipswich?
The model rates Ipswich to pick up more cards at 43.6%, with a level count at 21.6%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,167 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 16 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Premier League, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
