AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Pro League
AntwerpAntwerpLLLLL
Full time3-0Sat, 24 Oct 202624/1015:00UK
CharleroiCharleroiWLWWW

Antwerp 3-0 Charleroi cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined50.5%
Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined49.5%

Result

Antwerp3-0Charleroi
5 yellow cardsAntwerp 2, Charleroi 3
Under 3.5

We called Under 3.5 at 50.5% and it missed (5 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards49.5%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Wim Smet

Recorded match referee.

Wim Smet in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 5 3
Goals 2.20 Not available
Yellow cards 4.20 Not available
Red cards 0.20 Not available
Corners 9.0 Not available
Fouls 25.0 Not available
Both teams scored 0% Not available
Over 2.5 goals 60% Not available
Home wins 60% Not available
Latest 5 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
24 Oct 2026 Antwerp vs Charleroi 3-0 3 No 6 0 10 28
10 Oct 2026 Genk vs Kortrijk 3-0 3 No 4 1 10 20
6 Sep 2026 Beveren vs Oud-Heverlee Leuven 3-0 3 No 4 0 12 25
19 Apr 2026 RAAL La Louviere vs Waregem 0-2 2 No 2 0 8 31
12 Apr 2026 Genk vs Oud-Heverlee Leuven 0-0 0 No 5 0 5 21

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Antwerp vs Charleroi. It tips Charleroi for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 70.3% 29.7%
3.5 cards 49.5% 50.5%
4.5 cards 30.6% 69.4%
5.5 cards 16.7% 83.3%

Who picks up more cards

Antwerp
28.9%
Level
20.9%
Charleroi
50.2%

Team cards lines

Antwerp

Over 1.5
45.9%
Over 2.5
20.7%

Charleroi

Over 1.5
61.6%
Over 2.5
35.0%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Antwerp's; Charleroi gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Antwerp line Antwerp Charleroi
-1.5 13.6% 86.4%
-0.5 28.9% 71.1%
+0.5 49.8% 50.2%
+1.5 70.2% 29.8%

Red card

Any red card25.4%
Antwerp red card14.5%
Charleroi red card12.8%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 65.4% 34.6%
22.5 fouls 51.1% 48.9%
24.5 fouls 37.1% 62.9%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Antwerp N. Laforge 2 3.5 1.5

Swipe to see all referee stats →

AntwerpAntwerp

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Antwerp at home and Charleroi away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

CharleroiCharleroi
Statistic
Antwerp
Charleroi
Yellow cards per game
1.0
·

First-half yellow cards per game
0.4
·

Second-half yellow cards per game
0.6
·

Matches with card data
0
1

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 10,293 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 49.5%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 70.3% for over 2.5 to 16.7% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 49.5%. Head to head on cards, Charleroi are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 50.2%, with a level count at 20.9%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Antwerp over 1.5 cards sits at 45.9% and Charleroi at 61.6%. A red card for either side is rated at 25.4% (Antwerp 14.5%, Charleroi 12.8%). Antwerp’s most frequent referee this season, N. Laforge, has averaged 3.5 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.

49.5%Over 3.5 cards
25.4%Any red card
50.2%Most cards: Charleroi
45.9%Antwerp over 1.5 cards
61.6%Charleroi over 1.5 cards
51.1%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 49.5% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherN. Laforge, Antwerp’s most frequent referee this season, averages 3.5 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 25.4%, high enough to matter for the team lines.
The DisciplinarianCharleroi are the pick to collect more cards at 50.2%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
AntwerpAntwerp

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

CharleroiCharleroi
Statistic
Antwerp
Charleroi
fouls per game
14.8
8.8

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Antwerp vs Charleroi?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 49.5% for Antwerp vs Charleroi.
Will there be a red card in Antwerp vs Charleroi?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 25.4%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Antwerp vs Charleroi?
Before kickoff, the model rated Charleroi to pick up more cards at 50.2%, with a level count at 20.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.