Almeria 2-1 Burgos cards: our prediction vs the result
Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.
Result
Almeria2-1Burgos
We called Over 3.5 at 76.8% and it landed (5 in the match). We called No at 85.0% and it landed (0 in the match).
Model read
A clear lean on the model's numbers.
Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.
Conviction: Strong
Over 3.5 cards76.8%
Cards (bookings)
Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.
Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Almeria vs Burgos. The model leans toward Burgos for the most cards.
Total cards
Both teams combined.
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 89.5% | 10.5% |
| 3.5 cards | 76.8% | 23.2% |
| 4.5 cards | 60.2% | 39.8% |
| 5.5 cards | 42.8% | 57.2% |
Who picks up more cards
AlmeriaBurgosTeam cards lines
Almeria
Burgos
Card handicap
The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Almeria's; Burgos gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.
| Almeria line | Almeria | Burgos |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 19.6% | 80.4% |
| -0.5 | 34.3% | 65.7% |
| +0.5 | 51.9% | 48.1% |
| +1.5 | 69.1% | 31.0% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 85.6% | 14.4% |
| 22.5 fouls | 75.9% | 24.1% |
| 24.5 fouls | 63.9% | 36.1% |
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 8,516 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Cards actually happened 73.2% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 76.8%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 89.5% for over 2.5 to 42.8% for over 5.5, with over 5.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 42.8%. Between the two sides, Burgos are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 48.1%, with a level count at 17.6%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.
In-depth analysis
For the team lines, Almeria over 1.5 cards sits at 69.6% and Burgos at 77.4%. A red card for either side is rated at 15.0% (Almeria 10.2%, Burgos 5.3%). This season Almeria have averaged 2.1 cards a game and Burgos 2.4.
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
This season
2026/27 · Recorded results.
Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.
FAQ
How many cards in Almeria vs Burgos?
Will there be a red card in Almeria vs Burgos?
Which team will pick up more cards in Almeria vs Burgos?
How is this probability calculated?
Is this a betting tip?
More Segunda División, Cards
Related
Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
