AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Segunda División
AlbaceteAlbaceteLLLLL
Full time2-0Sun, 25 Oct 202625/1015:15UK
EldenseEldenseLLWWW

Albacete 2-0 Eldense cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined67%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined33%

Result

Albacete2-0Eldense
8 yellow cardsAlbacete 4, Eldense 4
0 red cardsAlbacete 0, Eldense 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 67.0% and it landed (8 in the match). We called No at 86.5% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

A moderate lean, nothing emphatic.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Moderate

Over 3.5 cards67.0%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Daniel Palencia Caballero

Recorded match referee.

Daniel Palencia Caballero in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 10 1
Goals 2.20 Not available
Yellow cards 5.80 Not available
Red cards 0.20 Not available
Corners 8.7 Not available
Fouls 30.2 Not available
Both teams scored 60% Not available
Over 2.5 goals 40% Not available
Home wins 30% Not available
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
25 Oct 2026 Albacete vs Eldense 2-0 2 No 8 0 14 25
10 Jan 2026 Mirandes vs Almeria 2-2 4 Yes 6 0 11 26
21 Dec 2025 Burgos vs Zaragoza 1-1 2 Yes 4 0 12 28
7 Dec 2025 Leganes vs Cordoba 0-0 0 No 4 0 9 31
23 Nov 2025 Malaga vs Mirandes 3-2 5 Yes 4 0 3 36
8 Nov 2025 Huesca vs Andorra 2-2 4 Yes 6 0 4 44
26 Oct 2025 La Coruna vs Valladolid 1-1 2 Yes 6 1 9 35
11 Oct 2025 Mirandes vs Leganes 0-0 0 No 7 0 13 23
28 Sep 2025 Burgos vs Malaga 2-1 3 Yes 9 1 3 30
15 Sep 2025 Zaragoza vs Albacete 0-0 0 No 4 0 9 24

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Albacete vs Eldense. The model leans toward Eldense for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 83.5% 16.6%
3.5 cards 67.0% 33.0%
4.5 cards 48.2% 51.8%
5.5 cards 31.0% 69.0%

Who picks up more cards

Albacete
36.2%
Level
19.2%
Eldense
44.7%

Team cards lines

Albacete

Over 1.5
63.8%
Over 2.5
36.9%

Eldense

Over 1.5
69.3%
Over 2.5
43.2%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Albacete's; Eldense gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Albacete line Albacete Eldense
-1.5 20.1% 79.9%
-0.5 36.2% 63.8%
+0.5 55.3% 44.7%
+1.5 73.1% 26.9%

Red card

Any red card13.5%
Albacete red card6.9%
Eldense red card7.1%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 73.8% 26.2%
22.5 fouls 60.5% 39.5%
24.5 fouls 46.3% 53.7%

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 10,239 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 67.0%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 83.5% for over 2.5 to 31.0% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 48.2%. Head to head on cards, Eldense are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 44.7%, with a level count at 19.2%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Albacete over 1.5 cards sits at 63.8% and Eldense at 69.3%. A red card for either side is rated at 13.5% (Albacete 6.9%, Eldense 7.1%).

We publish the model, not a sure thing. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

67.0%Over 3.5 cards
13.5%Any red card
44.7%Most cards: Eldense
63.8%Albacete over 1.5 cards
69.3%Eldense over 1.5 cards
60.5%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 67.0% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 13.5%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianEldense are the pick to collect more cards at 44.7%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 4.5 cards: over sits at 48.2%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.

FAQ

How many cards in Albacete vs Eldense?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 67.0% for Albacete vs Eldense.
Will there be a red card in Albacete vs Eldense?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 13.5%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Albacete vs Eldense?
Before kickoff, the model rated Eldense to pick up more cards at 44.7%, with a level count at 19.2%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Segunda DivisiónAlbacete fixtures and statsEldense fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.