La Liga
Alaves vs 
Valencia Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 24.5 shots at 44.4%, its strongest read on the Shots market. The total-shots ladder runs from 57.2% for over 22.5 to 22.3% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 44.4%. On the shot count, Alaves are the model’s pick to have more shots at 63.4%, with a level count at 6.0%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 57.2% | 42.8% |
| 24.5 shots | 44.4% | 55.6% |
| 26.5 shots | 32.4% | 67.6% |
| 28.5 shots | 22.3% | 77.7% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
70.7%
53.9%
37.4%
48.2%
30.3%
17.0%
Shot handicap
| Alaves line | Alaves | Valencia |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 37.7% | 62.3% |
| -2.5 | 50.5% | 49.5% |
| -0.5 | 63.4% | 36.6% |
| +0.5 | 69.4% | 30.6% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 70.6% | 29.5% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 57.7% | 42.3% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 44.7% | 55.3% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 32.7% | 67.3% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
First half / second half shots
4.8 / 9.2
3.8 / 5.0
Shots taken before and after half-time, per game, over the games in brackets. The bar is the share taken in the first half. This is Understat shot data with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, counted separately from the match shot totals above, so the two can differ. A match where the split could not be verified is left out rather than guessed.
This season (2026/27)
14.0Alaves shots per game10.2Alaves shots faced per game4.8Alaves first-half shots9.2Alaves second-half shots8.4Valencia shots per game14.2Valencia shots faced per game3.8Valencia first-half shots5.0Valencia second-half shotsShot counts move with pressure, not with the result, below are the model total-shot probabilities. The model leans to Alaves.
In-depth analysis
44.4%Over 24.5 shots53.9%Alaves over 12.5 shots30.3%Valencia over 12.5 shots57.7%Over 7.5 on targetFor the team lines, Alaves over 12.5 shots sits at 53.9% and Valencia at 30.3%. This season Alaves have averaged 14.0 shots a game and Valencia 8.4. Alaves take 4.8 shots before half-time and 9.2 after, Valencia 3.8 and 5.0.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Alaves vs Valencia?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 44.4% for Alaves vs Valencia.
Which team will have more shots in Alaves vs Valencia?
The model rates Alaves to take more shots at 63.4%.
Do Alaves shoot more in the first or second half?
Alaves average 4.8 shots before half-time and 9.2 after, this season.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 16,699 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Shots actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 15 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More La Liga, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.