Eredivisie
Ajax vs N.E.C. Nijmegen Corners
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 9.5 corners at 53.3%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Across the lines, the model goes from 77.8% for over 7.5 to 24.3% for over 12.5, with over 10.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 44.3%. Between the two sides, Ajax are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 57.9%, with a level count at 9.6%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 77.8% | 22.2% |
| 8.5 corners | 67.4% | 32.6% |
| 9.5 corners | 55.9% | 44.1% |
| 10.5 corners | 44.3% | 55.7% |
| 11.5 corners | 33.6% | 66.4% |
| 12.5 corners | 24.3% | 75.6% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
77.6%
64.1%
49.8%
61.2%
44.7%
30.3%
Corner handicap
| Ajax line | Ajax | N.E.C. Nijmegen |
|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | 29.0% | 71.0% |
| -1.5 | 47.8% | 52.2% |
| -0.5 | 57.9% | 42.1% |
| +0.5 | 67.4% | 32.6% |
This season (2026/27)
7.8Ajax corners won per game2.5Ajax corners conceded per gameThe corners market rewards teams that camp in the final third, below are the model total-corner probabilities. More corners are projected for Ajax.
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. We score every call against the result after the match.
55.9%Over 9.5 corners64.1%Ajax over 4.5 corners44.7%N.E.C. Nijmegen over 4.5 corners50.0%Odd corner totalBy team, Ajax over 4.5 corners sits at 64.1% and N.E.C. Nijmegen at 44.7%.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Ajax vs N.E.C. Nijmegen?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 55.9% for Ajax vs N.E.C. Nijmegen.
Which team will win the corner count in Ajax vs N.E.C. Nijmegen?
The model rates Ajax to win the corner count at 57.9%, with a level count at 9.6%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 23,762 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.2% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Eredivisie, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
