Eredivisie
Feyenoord vs 
AZ Alkmaar Corners
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 9.5 corners at 56.4%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Across the lines, the model goes from 80.3% for over 7.5 to 27.5% for over 12.5, with over 10.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 48.0%. Between the two sides, Feyenoord are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 54.6%, with a level count at 9.6%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 80.3% | 19.7% |
| 8.5 corners | 70.5% | 29.5% |
| 9.5 corners | 59.4% | 40.6% |
| 10.5 corners | 48.0% | 52.0% |
| 11.5 corners | 37.1% | 62.9% |
| 12.5 corners | 27.5% | 72.5% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
77.5%
64.0%
49.7%
65.8%
49.8%
35.1%
Corner handicap
| Feyenoord line | Feyenoord | AZ Alkmaar |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 44.8% | 55.2% |
| -0.5 | 54.6% | 45.4% |
| +0.5 | 64.2% | 35.8% |
| +1.5 | 72.9% | 27.1% |
This season (2026/27)
6.2Feyenoord corners won per game3.8Feyenoord corners conceded per game9.2AZ Alkmaar corners won per game3.5AZ Alkmaar corners conceded per gameThe corners market rewards teams that camp in the final third, below are the model total-corner probabilities. More corners are projected for Feyenoord.
In-depth analysis
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. We score every call against the result after the match.
59.4%Over 9.5 corners64.0%Feyenoord over 4.5 corners49.8%AZ Alkmaar over 4.5 corners50.0%Odd corner totalSplit by side, Feyenoord over 4.5 corners sits at 64.0% and AZ Alkmaar at 49.8%. This season Feyenoord have averaged 6.2 corners won a game and AZ Alkmaar 9.2.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 59.4% for Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar.
Which team will win the corner count in Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar?
The model rates Feyenoord to win the corner count at 54.6%, with a level count at 9.6%.
How many corners do Feyenoord and AZ Alkmaar average this season?
Feyenoord have won 6.2 corners a game this season and AZ Alkmaar 9.2.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 23,762 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.2% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Eredivisie, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
