Eredivisie
Ajax vs N.E.C. Nijmegen Double Chance
Part of a bigger picture: see the full match page, where this comes from.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Home or Draw at 88.0%, its strongest read on the Double Chance market. On the result, Ajax are favoured at 71.1%, so game state could swing this market. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Double Chance
Draw no bet
Draw no bet means a draw gives you your stake back. So we take the draw out and share what is left between the two sides.
Winning margin
| Margin | Probability |
|---|---|
| Ajax by 1 | 21.1% |
| Ajax by 2 | 20.3% |
| Ajax by 3+ | 29.7% |
| N.E.C. Nijmegen by 1 | 7.9% |
| N.E.C. Nijmegen by 2 | 3.0% |
| N.E.C. Nijmegen by 3+ | 1.1% |
| Draw | 16.9% |
Goal handicap
| Ajax line | Ajax | N.E.C. Nijmegen |
|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | 29.7% | 70.4% |
| -1.5 | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| -0.5 | 71.1% | 28.9% |
| +0.5 | 88.0% | 12.0% |
This season (2026/27)
3.0Ajax goals scored per game1.3Ajax goals conceded per gameDouble chance trades a slice of return for a wider safety net. The highest-probability cover is Ajax or draw on the model numbers.
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. We score every call against the result after the match.
58.4%Both Teams to Score69.1%Over 2.5 goalsReading the match, Ajax are favoured at 71.1%. We lean on calibration, not the favourite tag.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Form & head-to-head
FAQ
What is the most likely double chance in Ajax vs N.E.C. Nijmegen?
Home or Draw is the highest-probability double chance for Ajax vs N.E.C. Nijmegen at 88.0%.
What is the draw no bet probability in Ajax vs N.E.C. Nijmegen?
With the draw taken out, the model rates Ajax at 85.6% and N.E.C. Nijmegen at 14.5%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Double Chance accuracy
How our Double Chance calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 11,075 matches we rated like this one (80–90%), Double Chance actually happened 83.1% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Double Chance calls
Our most recent Double Chance calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Eredivisie, Double Chance
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
