Eredivisie
Ajax vs N.E.C. Nijmegen Correct Score
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Most likely · 9.4% at 2-0, its strongest read on the Correct Score market. That fits an open goals environment: 69.1% for over 2.5 and 87.5% for at least two goals. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Correct Score
| Scoreline | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2-0 | 9.4% |
| 2-1 | 9.3% |
| 3-0 | 8.1% |
| 3-1 | 8.0% |
| 1-1 | 7.6% |
| 1-0 | 6.9% |
| 4-0 | 5.2% |
| 4-1 | 5.1% |
Score probability grid
| Ajax \ N.E.C. Nijmegen | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3% | 2% | 1% | · | · | · |
| 1 | 7% | 8% | 4% | 1% | · | · |
| 2 | 9% | 9% | 5% | 2% | · | · |
| 3 | 8% | 8% | 4% | 1% | · | · |
| 4 | 5% | 5% | 3% | 1% | · | · |
| 5 | 3% | 3% | 1% | · | · | · |
Rows = Ajax goals, columns = N.E.C. Nijmegen. The most likely scoreline is 2-0 at 9.4%. The grid is the model’s full scoreline distribution, not a single tip, but the shape of every plausible result. Read the heatmap as a map of likelihood, not a prediction of one score.
Goals distribution
How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.
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In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.
58.4%Both Teams to Score69.1%Over 2.5 goalsLooking at totals, the model sees 69.1% for three or more goals and 87.5% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With Ajax favoured at 71.1%, the scoreline often hinges on whether the favourite is made to chase.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Form & head-to-head
FAQ
What is the most likely score in Ajax vs N.E.C. Nijmegen?
The model's most likely scoreline for Ajax vs N.E.C. Nijmegen is 2-0 at 9.4%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Correct Score-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
More Eredivisie, Correct Score
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
