Eredivisie
Ajax vs N.E.C. Nijmegen Over / Under 2.5 Goals
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 2.5 goals at 69.5%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. That fits an open goals environment: 69.5% for over 2.5 and 87.6% for at least two goals. Ajax have gone over 2.5 in 5 of their last 5. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 96.9% | 3.1% |
| 1.5 goals | 87.6% | 12.4% |
| 2.5 goals | 69.5% | 30.5% |
| 3.5 goals | 48.2% | 51.8% |
| 4.5 goals | 29.1% | 70.9% |
| 5.5 goals | 15.4% | 84.6% |
Team goal lines
92.5%
73.1%
47.9%
63.0%
26.2%
7.9%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 78.4% | 21.6% |
| 1.5 goals | 45.3% | 54.7% |
| 2.5 goals | 19.9% | 80.1% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 84.6% | 15.4% |
| 1.5 goals | 55.7% | 44.3% |
| 2.5 goals | 28.8% | 71.2% |
This season (2026/27)
2.9Ajax goals scored per game1.4Ajax goals conceded per game87.5%Ajax Over 2.5 rate1.1Ajax 1st-half goals per gameGoals distribution
How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.
0
1
2
3
4
5+
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. We score every call against the result after the match.
58.6%Both Teams to Score69.5%Over 2.5 goalsFor the goal environment, the model sees 69.5% for three or more goals and 87.6% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With Ajax favoured at 71.3%, a one-sided game can cap the goals at one end.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Ajax to win. See the full prediction →
Form & head-to-head
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Ajax vs N.E.C. Nijmegen?
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 69.5% for Ajax vs N.E.C. Nijmegen.
Will there be a first-half goal in Ajax vs N.E.C. Nijmegen?
The model rates at least one goal before half-time at 78.4%.
How often have Ajax gone over 2.5 recently?
Ajax have gone over 2.5 in 5 of their last 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 6,538 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 62.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 22 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
Our most recent Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Eredivisie, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
