Lens vs Lyon prediction & probabilities (2026-10-09)

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Lens vs Lyon: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 15 Sep 2026

Ligue 1
Lens

WWLLD

Fri, 9 Oct 202619:45UK
Lyon

LWDWD

Model’s top convictions

80%

Over 1.5 goals

73%

Lens or draw

61%

Over 8.5 corners

Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Model pick

Lens48.6%

Win probability · fair 2.06

Top signals

Over 1.5 goalsVery likely80.3%Fair 1.25
Lens or drawLikely72.6%Fair 1.38
Over 8.5 cornersLikely60.7%Fair 1.65

Model read

"When model and market disagree on Lens, that gap is the story." The model leans Lens at 49% when Lens host Lyon in the Ligue 1 on 9 October 2026. A lean, though, not a lock. Totals sit close to the fence: 57% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 59%. Recent form reads W2 D1 L3 for Lens against W2 D2 L2 for Lyon. For shots markets, Odsonne Edouard is the obvious watch at 1.4 on target per 90 in recent data. History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 3 wins for Lens, 1 draws and 1 for Lyon at 2.2 goals per match. Discipline says sit it out: no bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners39.7%@ 2.52
Over 11.5 corners30.5%@ 3.28
Medium risk

Both teams to score59.2%@ 1.69
Over 2.5 goals57.2%@ 1.75
Draw or Lyon51.4%@ 1.94
Random finds

1-1 correct score11.5%@ 8.67
2-1 correct score9.5%@ 10.58
1-0 correct score8.2%@ 12.21

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Lens

48.6%

Draw

24.0%

Lyon

27.4%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals

Over 1.5Strongest read · Very likely80.3%Fair 1.25
Over 2.5Close call57.2%Fair 1.75
BTTS · YesClose call59.2%Fair 1.69

Corners

Over 8.5 cornersLikely60.7%Fair 1.65
Over 9.5 cornersClose call50.0%Fair 2.00
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely39.7%Fair 2.52
Over 11.5 cornersUnlikely30.5%Fair 3.28
Most cornersLens57.7%Lyon31.8%

Shots

Over 22.5 shotsLikely65.5%Fair 1.53
Over 24.5 shotsClose call53.1%Fair 1.88
Over 26.5 shotsUnlikely40.7%Fair 2.46
Over 28.5 shotsLong shot29.4%Fair 3.40

Recent shot volume

Lens16.8 taken12.2 faced
Lyon14.5 taken11.8 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

First half / second half shots

Lens (4 games)

6.8 / 8.8

Lyon (4 games)

4.5 / 8.5

Shots taken before and after half-time, per game, over the games in brackets. The bar is the share taken in the first half. This is Understat shot data with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, counted separately from the match shot totals above, so the two can differ. A match where the split could not be verified is left out rather than guessed.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.580.3%2.557.2%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.580.3%

Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Form & head-to-head

LensWWLLD
LyonLWDWD

Last 5 meetings: Lens 3 · 1 draws · Lyon 1 · 2.2 goals/game.

2026-05-17Lyon 0-4 Lens
2025-08-16Lens 0-1 Lyon
2025-05-04Lyon 1-2 Lens
2024-09-15Lens 0-0 Lyon
2024-03-03Lyon 0-3 Lens

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

LensLyon
League position#10 of 18#4 of 18
Record W-D-L1-1-22-2-0
Current streakD1D1
Record, home vs away1-0-11-1-0
Red cards this season10

League averages this season: 2.75 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 53% · BTTS in 56%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Odsonne EdouardLens · key player
To score27.5%3.64
1+ on target56.8%1.76
2+ shots49.8%2.01
Shots/90 2.81SoT/90 1.41Goals/90 0.54
Keito NakamuraLyon · key player
To score30.5%3.28
1+ on target63.2%1.58
2+ shots73.9%1.35
Shots/90 2.9SoT/90 1.1Goals/90 0.4
Florian ThauvinLens · in form
To score30.1%3.32
1+ on target63.8%1.57
2+ shots67.8%1.47
Shots/90 2.67SoT/90 1.16Goals/90 0.41
Loïs OpendaLyon · in form
To score14.3%6.99
1+ on target47.4%2.11
2+ shots56.1%1.78
Shots/90 3.16SoT/90 1.08Goals/90 0.26
Abdallah SimaLens · in form
To score16.9%5.92
1+ on target41.3%2.42
2+ shots41.8%2.39
Shots/90 3SoT/90 1.12Goals/90 0.39
Ernest NuamahLyon · in form
To score13.8%7.25
1+ on target40.4%2.48
2+ shots39.8%2.51
Shots/90 2.78SoT/90 1.05Goals/90 0.3

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Lens win2.09
Draw4.04
Lyon win3.65
Both teams to score1.69

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.06
Over 1.5 goals1.25
Over 2.5 goals1.75
Over 3.5 goals2.87
Lens most2.09
Lyon most3.65

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.34
Over 8.5 corners1.58
Over 9.5 corners1.95
Over 10.5 corners2.52
Lens most1.73
Lyon most3.14

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.34
Over 3.5 cards1.84
Over 4.5 cards2.87
Over 5.5 cards5.07
Lens most2.30
Lyon most2.82

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.30
Over 7.5 SoT1.53
Over 8.5 SoT1.88
Over 9.5 SoT2.42
Lens most1.64
Lyon most3.63

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.53
Over 24.5 shots1.88
Over 26.5 shots2.46
Over 28.5 shots3.40
Lens most1.50
Lyon most3.60

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.30
Over 22.5 fouls1.55
Over 24.5 fouls1.99
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 65.5% Over 24.5 53.1% Over 26.5 40.7% Over 28.5 29.4%
Most: Lens 66.6% Most: Lyon 27.8%
Lens Over 13.2 53.8% Lyon Over 13.2 26.0%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 76.8% Over 7.5 65.5% Over 8.5 53.3% Over 9.5 41.3%
Most: Lens 61.0% Most: Lyon 27.5%
Lens Over 4.2 57.7% Lyon Over 4.2 33.1%

Cards

Over 2.5 74.5% Over 3.5 54.4% Over 4.5 34.9%
Most: Lens 43.6% Most: Lyon 35.5%
Lens Over 1.8 60.6% Lyon Over 1.8 54.9%

Lens: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Odsonne Edouard 2.81 1.41 0.54 56.8% 49.8% 27.5%
Florian Thauvin 2.67 1.16 0.41 63.8% 67.8% 30.1%
Abdallah Sima 3 1.12 0.39 41.3% 41.8% 16.9%
Andrija Bulatovic 1.77 0.73 0 26.2% 16.9% 0.0%
Florian Sotoca 2.19 0.58 0.09 20.7% 21.8% 3.5%

Lyon: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Keito Nakamura 2.9 1.1 0.4 63.2% 73.9% 30.5%
Loïs Openda 3.16 1.08 0.26 47.4% 56.1% 14.3%
Ernest Nuamah 2.78 1.05 0.3 40.4% 39.8% 13.8%
Malick Fofana 2.04 0.94 0.31 43.5% 35.1% 17.1%
Pavel Sulc 2.4 0.92 0.51 44.0% 44.7% 27.5%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Lens clean sheet 28.2%
Lyon clean sheet 17.9%
Lens win to nil 22.6%
Lyon win to nil 12.2%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 47.8% draw 24.7% away 27.4%
double_chance
1X 72.6% 12 75.3% X2 52.2%
dnb
home 63.6% away 36.4%
btts
yes 59.2% no 40.8%
clean_sheet
home 28.5% away 17.9%
win_to_nil
home 22.9% away 12.3%
winning_margin
home_by_1 21.7% home_by_2 14.7% home_by_3plus 11.4%
away_by_1 15.7% away_by_2 7.8% away_by_3plus 3.9%
correct_score
0-0 5.6% 0-1 5.9% 0-2 4.0%
0-3 1.7% 0-4 0.5% 0-5 0.1%
1-0 8.2% 1-1 11.5% 1-2 6.9%
1-3 2.9% 1-4 0.9% 1-5 0.2%
2-0 7.5% 2-1 9.5% 2-2 5.9%
2-3 2.5% 2-4 0.8% 2-5 0.2%
3-0 4.3% 3-1 5.4% 3-2 3.4%
3-3 1.4% 3-4 0.4% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 1.9% 4-1 2.4% 4-2 1.5%
4-3 0.6% 4-4 0.2% 4-5 0.1%
5-0 0.7% 5-1 0.8% 5-2 0.5%
5-3 0.2% 5-4 0.1% 5-5 0.0%
other 1.1%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 11.5%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 94.4% under_0.5 5.6% over_1.5 80.3%
under_1.5 19.7% over_2.5 57.2% under_2.5 42.8%
over_3.5 34.8% under_3.5 65.2% over_4.5 18.2%
under_4.5 81.8% over_5.5 8.2% under_5.5 91.8%
odd_even
odd 48.8% even 51.2%
team_home
over_0.5 82.1% under_0.5 17.9% over_1.5 51.4%
under_1.5 48.6% over_2.5 25.0% under_2.5 75.1%
team_away
over_0.5 71.5% under_0.5 28.5% over_1.5 35.7%
under_1.5 64.3% over_2.5 13.3% under_2.5 86.7%
most
home 47.8% draw 24.7% away 27.4%
handicap
home_-2.5 11.4% away_+2.5 88.6% home_-1.5 26.1%
away_+1.5 73.9% home_-0.5 47.8% away_+0.5 52.2%
home_+0.5 72.6% away_-0.5 27.4% home_+1.5 88.3%
away_-1.5 11.7% home_+2.5 96.1% away_-2.5 3.9%
total_exact
exact_0 5.6% exact_1 14.0% exact_2 23.1%
exact_3 22.4% exact_4 16.7% exact_5 10.0%
exact_6 5.0% exact_7plus 3.3%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 28.2% draw 41.8% away 30.0%
total
over_0.5 70.2% under_0.5 29.8% over_1.5 34.1%
under_1.5 65.9% over_2.5 12.3% under_2.5 87.7%
btts
yes 20.6% no 79.4%
total_exact
exact_0 29.8% exact_1 36.1% exact_2 21.8%
exact_3 8.8% exact_4plus 3.5%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 43.6% draw 32.8% away 23.5%
total
over_0.5 82.3% under_0.5 17.7% over_1.5 51.7%
under_1.5 48.3% over_2.5 25.2% under_2.5 74.9%
btts
yes 32.2% no 67.8%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 22.9% H/D 3.9% H/A 1.5%
D/H 18.2% D/D 13.7% D/A 9.8%
A/H 4.2% A/D 6.6% A/A 19.2%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 74.6% under_7.5 25.5% over_8.5 63.3%
under_8.5 36.7% over_9.5 51.3% under_9.5 48.7%
over_10.5 39.6% under_10.5 60.4% over_11.5 29.2%
under_11.5 70.8% over_12.5 20.5% under_12.5 79.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 76.3% under_3.5 23.7% over_4.5 61.8%
under_4.5 38.2% over_5.5 46.8% under_5.5 53.3%
team_away
over_3.5 59.2% under_3.5 40.8% over_4.5 41.9%
under_4.5 58.1% over_5.5 27.3% under_5.5 72.7%
most
home 57.9% draw 10.3% away 31.8%
handicap
home_-3.5 27.1% away_+3.5 72.9% home_-1.5 47.1%
away_+1.5 52.9% home_-0.5 57.9% away_+0.5 42.1%
home_+0.5 68.2% away_-0.5 31.8% home_+1.5 77.2%
away_-1.5 22.8% home_+3.5 90.1% away_-3.5 9.9%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 65.5% under_22.5 34.5% over_24.5 53.1%
under_24.5 46.9% over_26.5 40.7% under_26.5 59.3%
over_28.5 29.4% under_28.5 70.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 77.4% under_10.5 22.6% over_12.5 62.0%
under_12.5 38.0% over_14.5 45.7% under_14.5 54.3%
team_away
over_10.5 51.8% under_10.5 48.2% over_12.5 33.7%
under_12.5 66.3% over_14.5 19.6% under_14.5 80.4%
most
home 66.6% draw 5.6% away 27.8%
handicap
home_-4.5 41.7% away_+4.5 58.3% home_-2.5 54.4%
away_+2.5 45.6% home_-0.5 66.6% away_+0.5 33.4%
home_+0.5 72.2% away_-0.5 27.8% home_+2.5 81.8%
away_-2.5 18.2% home_+4.5 89.0% away_-4.5 11.0%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 76.8% under_6.5 23.2% over_7.5 65.5%
under_7.5 34.5% over_8.5 53.3% under_8.5 46.7%
over_9.5 41.3% under_9.5 58.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 73.5% under_3.5 26.5% over_4.5 57.7%
under_4.5 42.3% over_5.5 41.9% under_5.5 58.1%
team_away
over_3.5 51.0% under_3.5 49.0% over_4.5 33.1%
under_4.5 66.9% over_5.5 19.5% under_5.5 80.5%
most
home 61.0% draw 11.5% away 27.5%
handicap
home_-2.5 36.5% away_+2.5 63.5% home_-0.5 61.0%
away_+0.5 39.0% home_+0.5 72.5% away_-0.5 27.5%
home_+2.5 89.0% away_-2.5 11.0%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 74.5% under_2.5 25.5% over_3.5 54.4%
under_3.5 45.6% over_4.5 34.9% under_4.5 65.1%
over_5.5 19.7% under_5.5 80.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 60.6% under_1.5 39.4% over_2.5 33.6%
under_2.5 66.4%
team_away
over_1.5 54.9% under_1.5 45.1% over_2.5 28.0%
under_2.5 72.0%
most
home 43.6% draw 20.9% away 35.5%
handicap
home_-1.5 24.6% away_+1.5 75.4% home_-0.5 43.6%
away_+0.5 56.4% home_+0.5 64.5% away_-0.5 35.5%
home_+1.5 81.5% away_-1.5 18.5%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 77.0% under_20.5 23.0% over_22.5 64.3%
under_22.5 35.7% over_24.5 50.4% under_24.5 49.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 77.7% under_9.5 22.3% over_11.5 59.3%
under_11.5 40.7% over_13.5 39.9% under_13.5 60.1%
team_away
over_9.5 73.2% under_9.5 26.8% over_11.5 53.5%
under_11.5 46.5% over_13.5 34.2% under_13.5 65.8%
most
home 50.7% draw 7.0% away 42.3%
handicap
home_-3.5 30.3% away_+3.5 69.7% home_-0.5 50.7%
away_+0.5 49.3% home_+2.5 70.9% away_-2.5 29.1%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 29.2% no 70.8%
home
yes 17.4% no 82.6%
away
yes 14.3% no 85.7%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0096 (55405 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Lens predictions · Lyon predictions · Ligue 1

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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Ligue 1LensLyonTrack record