Ligue 1
Lens vs 
Lyon Over / Under 2.5 Goals
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 2.5 goals at 57.2%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. It is driven by both attacks and defences: Lens have averaged 2.4 scored and 1.4 conceded, Lyon 1.2 and 1.2 over their recent games. That fits an open goals environment: 57.2% for over 2.5 and 80.3% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 2.2 goals a game. Lens have gone over 2.5 in 4 of their last 5, Lyon in 2 of 5. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 94.4% | 5.6% |
| 1.5 goals | 80.3% | 19.7% |
| 2.5 goals | 57.2% | 42.8% |
| 3.5 goals | 34.8% | 65.2% |
| 4.5 goals | 18.2% | 81.8% |
| 5.5 goals | 8.2% | 91.8% |
Team goal lines
82.1%
51.4%
25.0%
71.5%
35.7%
13.3%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 70.2% | 29.8% |
| 1.5 goals | 34.1% | 65.9% |
| 2.5 goals | 12.3% | 87.7% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 82.3% | 17.7% |
| 1.5 goals | 51.7% | 48.3% |
| 2.5 goals | 25.2% | 74.9% |
Goals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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In-depth analysis
59.2%Both Teams to Score57.2%Over 2.5 goalsOn the goals side, the model sees 57.2% for three or more goals and 80.3% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With Lens favoured at 48.6%, neither side dominating can mean an end-to-end match.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Lens to win. See the full prediction →
Key players
This season’s squad only, rated on recent form; a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Lens 3 · 1 draws · Lyon 1 · 2.2 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Lens vs Lyon?
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 57.2% for Lens vs Lyon.
Will there be a first-half goal in Lens vs Lyon?
The model rates at least one goal before half-time at 70.2%.
How often have Lens gone over 2.5 recently?
Lens have gone over 2.5 in 4 of their last 5, Lyon in 2 of 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 18,267 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 54.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 17 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
The model’s most recent graded Over / Under 2.5 Goals predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Ligue 1, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
