ChampionshipWrexham vs 
Southampton Cards
Result
We called Under 3.5 at 52.3% and it missed (5 in the match). We called No at 96.8% and it landed (0 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 47.7%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 69.1% for over 2.5 to 15.1% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 47.7%. Between the two sides, Southampton are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 44.3%, with a level count at 21.9%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 69.1% | 30.9% |
| 3.5 cards | 47.7% | 52.3% |
| 4.5 cards | 28.7% | 71.4% |
| 5.5 cards | 15.1% | 84.9% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
49.2%
23.0%
57.0%
29.9%
Card handicap
| Wrexham line | Wrexham | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 16.6% | 83.4% |
| -0.5 | 33.8% | 66.2% |
| +0.5 | 55.7% | 44.3% |
| +1.5 | 75.5% | 24.5% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 53.6% | 46.4% |
| 22.5 fouls | 37.9% | 62.1% |
| 24.5 fouls | 24.3% | 75.7% |
This season (2026/27)
1.1Wrexham cards per game11.4Wrexham fouls per game1.4Southampton cards per game8.4Southampton fouls per gameBookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Wrexham vs Southampton. It tips Southampton for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
47.7%Over 3.5 cards3.2%Any red card49.2%Wrexham over 1.5 cards57.0%Southampton over 1.5 cards37.9%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Wrexham over 1.5 cards sits at 49.2% and Southampton at 57.0%. A red card for either side is rated at 3.2% (Wrexham 2.0%, Southampton 1.2%). This season Wrexham have averaged 1.1 cards a game and Southampton 1.4.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Wrexham vs Southampton?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 47.7% for Wrexham vs Southampton.
Will there be a red card in Wrexham vs Southampton?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 3.2%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Wrexham vs Southampton?
Before kickoff, the model rated Southampton to pick up more cards at 44.3%, with a level count at 21.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 10,197 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 22 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Championship, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
