ChampionshipWrexham vs 
Southampton Shots
Result
We called Over 24.5 at 54.9% and it landed (28 in the match). We called Over 7.5 at 61.0% and it landed (11 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 24.5 shots at 54.9%, its strongest read on the Shots market. The total-shots ladder runs from 67.1% for over 22.5 to 31.3% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 54.9%. Head to head on shots, Wrexham are the model’s pick to have more shots at 59.0%, with a level count at 6.0%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 67.1% | 32.9% |
| 24.5 shots | 54.9% | 45.1% |
| 26.5 shots | 42.7% | 57.3% |
| 28.5 shots | 31.3% | 68.7% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
74.2%
58.1%
41.7%
59.0%
40.9%
25.5%
Shot handicap
| Wrexham line | Wrexham | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 34.4% | 65.6% |
| -2.5 | 46.5% | 53.5% |
| -0.5 | 59.0% | 41.0% |
| +0.5 | 65.0% | 35.0% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 73.0% | 27.0% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 61.0% | 39.0% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 48.5% | 51.5% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 36.6% | 63.4% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
This season (2026/27)
11.3Wrexham shots per game11.1Wrexham shots faced per game15.9Southampton shots per game16.0Southampton shots faced per gameShot volume tracks territory and game state more than the scoreline, below are the model total-shot probabilities. More attempts are projected for Wrexham.
In-depth analysis
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.
54.9%Over 24.5 shots58.1%Wrexham over 12.5 shots40.9%Southampton over 12.5 shots61.0%Over 7.5 on targetBy team, Wrexham over 12.5 shots sits at 58.1% and Southampton at 40.9%. This season Wrexham have averaged 11.3 shots a game and Southampton 15.9.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Wrexham vs Southampton?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 24.5 total shots at 54.9% for Wrexham vs Southampton.
Which team will have more shots in Wrexham vs Southampton?
Before kickoff, the model rated Wrexham to take more shots at 59.0%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 12,949 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Shots actually happened 56.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 22 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
Our most recent Shots calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Championship, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
