ChampionshipWrexham vs 
Southampton Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Result
We called Over 2.5 at 60.9% and it landed. We called Under 3.5 at 61.3% and it landed.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 2.5 goals at 60.9%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. The goals picture is built on form: Wrexham have averaged 1.0 scored and 1.8 conceded, Southampton 2.8 and 1.0 over their recent games. That fits an open goals environment: 60.9% for over 2.5 and 82.7% for at least two goals. Their last 2 meetings have averaged 4.5 goals a game. Wrexham have gone over 2.5 in 3 of their last 5, Southampton in 3 of 5. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 95.2% | 4.8% |
| 1.5 goals | 82.7% | 17.3% |
| 2.5 goals | 60.9% | 39.1% |
| 3.5 goals | 38.7% | 61.3% |
| 4.5 goals | 21.1% | 78.9% |
| 5.5 goals | 10.1% | 90.0% |
Team goal lines
73.7%
38.5%
15.1%
83.7%
54.2%
27.4%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 75.3% | 24.7% |
| 1.5 goals | 40.8% | 59.2% |
| 2.5 goals | 16.6% | 83.4% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 84.8% | 15.2% |
| 1.5 goals | 56.2% | 43.8% |
| 2.5 goals | 29.2% | 70.8% |
This season (2026/27)
1.0Wrexham goals scored per game1.6Wrexham goals conceded per game42.9%Wrexham Over 2.5 rate0.4Wrexham 1st-half goals per game2.6Southampton goals scored per game1.1Southampton goals conceded per game71.4%Southampton Over 2.5 rate1.1Southampton 1st-half goals per gameGoals distribution
How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.
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In-depth analysis
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. We score every call against the result after the match.
62.2%Both Teams to Score60.9%Over 2.5 goalsFor the goal environment, the model sees 60.9% for three or more goals and 82.7% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With Southampton favoured at 48.3%, a close contest often produces chances at both ends.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Southampton to win. See the full prediction →
Form & head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Wrexham 0 · 0 draws · Southampton 2 · 4.5 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Were there over 2.5 goals in Wrexham vs Southampton?
We rated Over 2.5 goals at 60.9%. The match finished with 3 goals (2-1), over 2.5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 6,518 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 62.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
Our most recent Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Championship, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
