AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 28 Oct 2026

Championship
WrexhamWrexhamWDLWL
Wed, 4 Nov 20264/1119:45UK
MiddlesbroughMiddlesbroughDWWDW

Wrexham vs Middlesbrough cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined56.5%
Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined43.5%

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards43.5%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Wrexham vs Middlesbrough. The model leans toward Middlesbrough for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 65.4% 34.6%
3.5 cards 43.5% 56.5%
4.5 cards 25.0% 75.0%
5.5 cards 12.6% 87.4%

Who picks up more cards

Wrexham
33.0%
Level
22.6%
Middlesbrough
44.4%

Team cards lines

Wrexham

Over 1.5
45.8%
Over 2.5
20.3%

Middlesbrough

Over 1.5
54.4%
Over 2.5
27.5%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Wrexham's; Middlesbrough gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Wrexham line Wrexham Middlesbrough
-1.5 15.7% 84.3%
-0.5 33.0% 67.0%
+0.5 55.6% 44.4%
+1.5 75.9% 24.1%

Red card

Any red card2.9%
Wrexham red card1.9%
Middlesbrough red card1.0%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 48.5% 51.5%
22.5 fouls 33.0% 67.0%
24.5 fouls 20.4% 79.6%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Wrexham M Donohue 2 3.0 1.0
Middlesbrough R Madley 2 2.0 0.5

Swipe to see all referee stats →

WrexhamWrexham

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Wrexham at home and Middlesbrough away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

MiddlesbroughMiddlesbrough
Statistic
Wrexham
Middlesbrough
Yellow cards per game
1.3
1.0

First-half yellow cards per game
0.6
0.3

Second-half yellow cards per game
0.8
0.8

Matches with card data
3
2

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 10,293 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 43.5%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 65.4% for over 2.5 to 12.6% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 43.5%. Between the two sides, Middlesbrough are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 44.4%, with a level count at 22.6%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Wrexham over 1.5 cards sits at 45.8% and Middlesbrough at 54.4%. A red card for either side is rated at 2.9% (Wrexham 1.9%, Middlesbrough 1.0%). Wrexham’s most frequent referee this season, M Donohue, has averaged 3.0 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.

43.5%Over 3.5 cards
2.9%Any red card
44.4%Most cards: Middlesbrough
45.8%Wrexham over 1.5 cards
54.4%Middlesbrough over 1.5 cards
33.0%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 43.5% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherM Donohue, Wrexham’s most frequent referee this season, averages 3.0 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 2.9%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianMiddlesbrough are the pick to collect more cards at 44.4%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
WrexhamWrexham

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

MiddlesbroughMiddlesbrough
Statistic
Wrexham
Middlesbrough
fouls per game
10.7
10.0

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Wrexham vs Middlesbrough?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 43.5% for Wrexham vs Middlesbrough.
Will there be a red card in Wrexham vs Middlesbrough?
The model rates a red card for either side at 2.9%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Wrexham vs Middlesbrough?
The model rates Middlesbrough to pick up more cards at 44.4%, with a level count at 22.6%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

ChampionshipWrexham fixtures and statsMiddlesbrough fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.