AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Championship
WolvesWolvesDWWLL
Full time1-1Tue, 20 Oct 202620/1019:45UK
PortsmouthPortsmouthWDDLW

Wolves 1-1 Portsmouth cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined54.3%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined45.7%

Result

Wolves1-1Portsmouth
6 yellow cardsWolves 3, Portsmouth 3
0 red cardsWolves 0, Portsmouth 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 54.3% and it landed (6 in the match). We called No at 95.2% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards54.3%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Edward Duckworth

Recorded match referee.

Edward Duckworth in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 46 6
Goals 2.72 1.50
Yellow cards 4.35 5.17
Red cards 0.17 0.17
Corners 10.7 10.7
Fouls 21.9 20.2
Both teams scored 50% 17%
Over 2.5 goals 48% 0%
Home wins 46% 50%
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
20 Oct 2026 Wolves vs Portsmouth 1-1 2 Yes 6 0 8 17
13 Oct 2026 Millwall vs Swansea 0-1 1 No 5 0 14 21
12 Sep 2026 Grimsby vs Bristol RvsLeague Two 2-0 2 No 5 1 16 21
5 Sep 2026 Fleetwood Town vs ShrewsburyLeague Two 2-0 2 No 8 0 7 28
1 Sep 2026 Swansea vs Watford 2-0 2 No 4 0 8 20
22 Aug 2026 QPR vs Bolton 0-0 0 No 3 0 11 14
14 Apr 2026 Barrow vs OldhamLeague Two 3-2 5 Yes 4 0 11 23
11 Apr 2026 QPR vs Bristol City 0-0 0 No 6 0 9 23
6 Apr 2026 Notts County vs Newport CountyLeague Two 3-1 4 Yes 5 0 12 24
28 Mar 2026 Crawley Town vs GillinghamLeague Two 2-0 2 No 4 0 9 31

Edward Duckworth referee stats

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Wolves vs Portsmouth. Slightly more cards are projected for Portsmouth for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 74.4% 25.6%
3.5 cards 54.3% 45.7%
4.5 cards 34.8% 65.2%
5.5 cards 19.7% 80.3%

Who picks up more cards

Wolves
30.6%
Level
20.5%
Portsmouth
48.8%

Team cards lines

Wolves

Over 1.5
50.9%
Over 2.5
24.5%

Portsmouth

Over 1.5
63.9%
Over 2.5
37.1%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Wolves's; Portsmouth gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Wolves line Wolves Portsmouth
-1.5 15.0% 85.0%
-0.5 30.6% 69.4%
+0.5 51.2% 48.8%
+1.5 71.1% 28.9%

Red card

Any red card4.9%
Wolves red card3.2%
Portsmouth red card1.8%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 67.8% 32.2%
22.5 fouls 52.7% 47.3%
24.5 fouls 37.7% 62.3%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Wolves F Hallam 2 5.0 2.0

Swipe to see all referee stats →

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 54.3%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 74.4% for over 2.5 to 19.7% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 54.3%. On the card count, Portsmouth are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 48.8%, with a level count at 20.5%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Wolves over 1.5 cards sits at 50.9% and Portsmouth at 63.9%. A red card for either side is rated at 4.9% (Wolves 3.2%, Portsmouth 1.8%). Wolves’s most frequent referee this season, F Hallam, has averaged 5.0 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

54.3%Over 3.5 cards
4.9%Any red card
48.8%Most cards: Portsmouth
50.9%Wolves over 1.5 cards
63.9%Portsmouth over 1.5 cards
52.7%Over 22.5 fouls

We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 54.3% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherF Hallam, Wolves’s most frequent referee this season, averages 5.0 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 4.9%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianPortsmouth are the pick to collect more cards at 48.8%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.

FAQ

How many cards in Wolves vs Portsmouth?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 54.3% for Wolves vs Portsmouth.
Will there be a red card in Wolves vs Portsmouth?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 4.9%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Wolves vs Portsmouth?
Before kickoff, the model rated Portsmouth to pick up more cards at 48.8%, with a level count at 20.5%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.