Heerenveen vs Telstar prediction & probabilities (2026-09-13)

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Heerenveen vs Telstar: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 12 Sep 2026

Eredivisie
Heerenveen

WDLDL

Sun, 13 Sep 202613:30UK
Telstar

WLLDL

Model’s top convictions

83%

Over 1.5 goals

72%

Heerenveen or draw

65%

Over 8.5 corners

Fairly pricedToo extreme an outsider (fair 0.19).

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
HeerenveenWin probability
47.6%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals83.1%High probabilityPays @ 1.20
Heerenveen or draw71.5%Strong chancePays @ 1.40
Over 8.5 corners64.6%Strong chancePays @ 1.55

Model read

▾

A measured edge to Heerenveen: 48% is the model's line for this Eredivisie meeting on 13 September 2026. Worth knowing: bookmakers rate Heerenveen higher (60%) than our model does. The goals profile is lively: Over 2.5 sits at 62% with both teams to score at 63%. Schedule edge: Heerenveen have had 4 more days of rest than Telstar. Recent form reads W1 D3 L2 for Heerenveen against W2 D1 L3 for Telstar. History adds colour: across the last 2 meetings it is 2 wins for Heerenveen, 0 draws and 0 for Telstar at 4.0 goals per match. Verdict: no bet. Too extreme an outsider (fair 0.19).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners45.2%@ 2.21
Over 11.5 corners36.2%@ 2.76
Medium risk

Over 2.5 goals61.6%@ 1.62
Over 9.5 corners54.8%@ 1.82
Draw or Telstar52.3%@ 1.91
Random finds

1-1 correct score10.8%@ 9.26
2-1 correct score9.3%@ 10.72
1-0 correct score7.0%@ 14.22

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Heerenveen

47.6%-12.6%

Draw

23.9%+3.4%

Telstar

28.4%+9.1%

ModelMarket

too extreme an outsider (fair 0.19)

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.583.1%

High probability

Over 2.561.6%

Strong chance

BTTS · Yes62.8%

Strong chance

Corners markets

Over 8.564.6%

Strong chance

Over 9.554.8%

Good chance

Over 10.545.2%

Reasonable chance

Over 11.536.2%

Toss-up

Most cornersHeerenveen59.0%Telstar31.4%

Shots markets

Over 22.574.3%

Strong chance

Over 24.564.2%

Strong chance

Over 26.553.3%

Good chance

Over 28.542.3%

Reasonable chance

Recent shot volume

Heerenveen13.7 taken18.5 faced
Telstar7.8 taken17.0 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.583.1%2.561.6%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 2.561.6%

Discipline: Fairly priced. Too extreme an outsider (fair 0.19).

Form & head-to-head

HeerenveenWDLDL
TelstarWLLDL

Last 2 meetings: Heerenveen 2 · 0 draws · Telstar 0 · 4.0 goals/game.

2026-03-14Heerenveen 3-0 Telstar
2025-10-19Telstar 2-3 Heerenveen

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

HeerenveenTelstar
League position#12 of 18#14 of 18
Record W-D-L1-2-21-1-3
Current streakL1L1
Points per game1.000.80
Record, home vs away1-0-21-0-1
PPG, home vs away1.00·
Goals scored per game1.401.00
Goals conceded per game1.802.20
Scored, home vs away1.00·
Conceded, home vs away1.67·
1st half goals per game0.600.40
2nd half goals per game0.800.60
Corners won per game4.44.2
Cards per game1.02.0
Fouls per game7.411.2
Red cards this season01
Shots per game13.28.0
Shots faced per game17.617.0
Shots on target per game5.42.4
Over 2.5 rate

60.0%80.0%

BTTS rate

60.0%60.0%

Clean sheets

20.0%0.0%

Rates this season:HeerenveenTelstar

League averages this season: 4.02 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 84% · BTTS in 77%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Heerenveen win1.602.10
Draw4.504.18
Telstar win4.753.52
Over 2.5 goals1.401.62
Under 2.5 goals2.882.60

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Heerenveen win2.10
Draw4.18
Telstar win3.51
Both teams to score1.59

Goals

Over 1.5 goals1.20
Over 2.5 goals1.62
Over 3.5 goals2.54
Over 4.5 goals4.61
Heerenveen most2.10
Telstar most3.51

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.26
Over 8.5 corners1.45
Over 9.5 corners1.73
Over 10.5 corners2.16
Heerenveen most1.69
Telstar most3.18

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.80
Over 3.5 cards2.99
Over 4.5 cards5.79
Over 5.5 cards12.89
Heerenveen most3.18
Telstar most2.26

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.17
Over 7.5 SoT1.29
Over 8.5 SoT1.47
Over 9.5 SoT1.73
Heerenveen most1.78
Telstar most2.98

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.35
Over 24.5 shots1.56
Over 26.5 shots1.87
Over 28.5 shots2.36
Heerenveen most1.64
Telstar most2.96

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.92
Over 22.5 fouls2.72
Over 24.5 fouls4.19
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 74.3% Over 24.5 64.2% Over 26.5 53.3% Over 28.5 42.3%
Most: Heerenveen 61.0% Most: Telstar 33.8%
Heerenveen Over 13.2 58.7% Telstar Over 13.2 38.9%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 85.8% Over 7.5 77.8% Over 8.5 68.2% Over 9.5 57.8%
Most: Heerenveen 56.1% Most: Telstar 33.5%
Heerenveen Over 4.2 64.5% Telstar Over 4.2 48.7%

Cards

Over 2.5 55.6% Over 3.5 33.5% Over 4.5 17.3%
Most: Heerenveen 31.5% Most: Telstar 44.2%
Heerenveen Over 1.8 37.7% Telstar Over 1.8 47.4%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Heerenveen clean sheet 25.3%
Telstar clean sheet 16.2%
Heerenveen win to nil 20.6%
Telstar win to nil 11.6%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 47.6% draw 23.9% away 28.4%
double_chance
1X 71.6% 12 76.1% X2 52.4%
dnb
home 62.6% away 37.4%
btts
yes 62.8% no 37.2%
clean_sheet
home 25.5% away 16.3%
win_to_nil
home 20.8% away 11.6%
winning_margin
home_by_1 21.1% home_by_2 14.6% home_by_3plus 11.9%
away_by_1 15.8% away_by_2 8.2% away_by_3plus 4.4%
correct_score
0-0 4.7% 0-1 5.2% 0-2 3.9%
0-3 1.8% 0-4 0.6% 0-5 0.2%
1-0 7.0% 1-1 10.8% 1-2 7.0%
1-3 3.2% 1-4 1.1% 1-5 0.3%
2-0 6.8% 2-1 9.3% 2-2 6.4%
2-3 2.9% 2-4 1.0% 2-5 0.3%
3-0 4.1% 3-1 5.7% 3-2 3.9%
3-3 1.8% 3-4 0.6% 3-5 0.2%
4-0 1.9% 4-1 2.6% 4-2 1.8%
4-3 0.8% 4-4 0.3% 4-5 0.1%
5-0 0.7% 5-1 0.9% 5-2 0.6%
5-3 0.3% 5-4 0.1% 5-5 0.0%
other 1.4%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 10.8%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 95.3% under_0.5 4.7% over_1.5 83.1%
under_1.5 16.9% over_2.5 61.6% under_2.5 38.4%
over_3.5 39.4% under_3.5 60.6% over_4.5 21.7%
under_4.5 78.3% over_5.5 10.4% under_5.5 89.6%
odd_even
odd 48.9% even 51.1%
team_home
over_0.5 83.7% under_0.5 16.3% over_1.5 54.2%
under_1.5 45.8% over_2.5 27.4% under_2.5 72.6%
team_away
over_0.5 74.5% under_0.5 25.5% over_1.5 39.6%
under_1.5 60.4% over_2.5 15.8% under_2.5 84.2%
most
home 47.6% draw 23.9% away 28.4%
handicap
home_-2.5 11.9% away_+2.5 88.1% home_-1.5 26.5%
away_+1.5 73.5% home_-0.5 47.6% away_+0.5 52.4%
home_+0.5 71.6% away_-0.5 28.4% home_+1.5 87.3%
away_-1.5 12.7% home_+2.5 95.6% away_-2.5 4.4%
total_exact
exact_0 4.7% exact_1 12.2% exact_2 21.5%
exact_3 22.2% exact_4 17.7% exact_5 11.3%
exact_6 6.0% exact_7plus 4.4%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 33.9% draw 42.5% away 23.7%
total
over_0.5 68.8% under_0.5 31.2% over_1.5 32.5%
under_1.5 67.5% over_2.5 11.3% under_2.5 88.7%
btts
yes 19.2% no 80.9%
total_exact
exact_0 31.2% exact_1 36.3% exact_2 21.2%
exact_3 8.2% exact_4plus 3.1%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 40.1% draw 31.5% away 28.4%
total
over_0.5 85.1% under_0.5 14.9% over_1.5 56.7%
under_1.5 43.3% over_2.5 29.7% under_2.5 70.3%
btts
yes 37.2% no 62.8%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 26.2% H/D 5.2% H/A 2.5%
D/H 17.0% D/D 13.4% D/A 12.1%
A/H 3.2% A/D 5.0% A/A 15.5%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 79.1% under_7.5 20.9% over_8.5 69.0%
under_8.5 31.1% over_9.5 57.7% under_9.5 42.3%
over_10.5 46.2% under_10.5 53.8% over_11.5 35.4%
under_11.5 64.6% over_12.5 26.0% under_12.5 74.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 79.0% under_3.5 21.0% over_4.5 65.9%
under_4.5 34.1% over_5.5 51.9% under_5.5 48.1%
team_away
over_3.5 61.1% under_3.5 38.9% over_4.5 44.7%
under_4.5 55.3% over_5.5 30.4% under_5.5 69.6%
most
home 59.2% draw 9.3% away 31.5%
handicap
home_-3.5 30.6% away_+3.5 69.4% home_-1.5 49.4%
away_+1.5 50.6% home_-0.5 59.2% away_+0.5 40.8%
home_+0.5 68.5% away_-0.5 31.5% home_+1.5 76.8%
away_-1.5 23.2% home_+3.5 89.0% away_-3.5 11.0%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 74.3% under_22.5 25.7% over_24.5 64.2%
under_24.5 35.8% over_26.5 53.3% under_26.5 46.7%
over_28.5 42.3% under_28.5 57.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 78.9% under_10.5 21.1% over_12.5 65.8%
under_12.5 34.2% over_14.5 51.4% under_14.5 48.6%
team_away
over_10.5 62.6% under_10.5 37.4% over_12.5 46.5%
under_12.5 53.6% over_14.5 31.9% under_14.5 68.1%
most
home 61.0% draw 5.2% away 33.8%
handicap
home_-4.5 38.9% away_+4.5 61.1% home_-2.5 50.0%
away_+2.5 50.0% home_-0.5 61.0% away_+0.5 39.0%
home_+0.5 66.2% away_-0.5 33.8% home_+2.5 75.8%
away_-2.5 24.3% home_+4.5 83.6% away_-4.5 16.4%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 85.8% under_6.5 14.2% over_7.5 77.8%
under_7.5 22.2% over_8.5 68.2% under_8.5 31.8%
over_9.5 57.8% under_9.5 42.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 78.0% under_3.5 22.0% over_4.5 64.5%
under_4.5 35.6% over_5.5 50.2% under_5.5 49.8%
team_away
over_3.5 65.1% under_3.5 34.9% over_4.5 48.8%
under_4.5 51.2% over_5.5 33.9% under_5.5 66.1%
most
home 56.1% draw 10.4% away 33.5%
handicap
home_-2.5 35.0% away_+2.5 65.0% home_-0.5 56.1%
away_+0.5 43.9% home_+0.5 66.5% away_-0.5 33.5%
home_+2.5 83.3% away_-2.5 16.7%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 55.6% under_2.5 44.4% over_3.5 33.5%
under_3.5 66.6% over_4.5 17.3% under_4.5 82.7%
over_5.5 7.8% under_5.5 92.2%
odd_even
odd 49.8% even 50.2%
team_home
over_1.5 37.8% under_1.5 62.3% over_2.5 14.8%
under_2.5 85.3%
team_away
over_1.5 47.4% under_1.5 52.6% over_2.5 21.8%
under_2.5 78.2%
most
home 31.5% draw 24.3% away 44.2%
handicap
home_-1.5 13.8% away_+1.5 86.2% home_-0.5 31.5%
away_+0.5 68.5% home_+0.5 55.8% away_-0.5 44.2%
home_+1.5 77.3% away_-1.5 22.7%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 52.1% under_20.5 47.9% over_22.5 36.8%
under_22.5 63.2% over_24.5 23.8% under_24.5 76.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 56.5% under_9.5 43.5% over_11.5 34.7%
under_11.5 65.3% over_13.5 18.1% under_13.5 81.9%
team_away
over_9.5 60.5% under_9.5 39.5% over_11.5 38.8%
under_11.5 61.2% over_13.5 21.2% under_13.5 78.8%
most
home 43.1% draw 7.9% away 49.0%
handicap
home_-3.5 22.0% away_+3.5 78.0% home_-0.5 43.1%
away_+0.5 56.9% home_+2.5 66.4% away_-2.5 33.6%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 12.0% no 88.0%
home
yes 4.4% no 95.6%
away
yes 8.0% no 92.1%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Heerenveen predictions · Telstar predictions · Eredivisie

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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