PSV Eindhoven vs Sparta Rotterdam prediction & probabilities (2026-09-13)

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PSV Eindhoven vs Sparta Rotterdam: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 12 Sep 2026

Eredivisie
PSV Eindhoven

DWWWW

Sun, 13 Sep 202619:00UK
Sparta Rotterdam

LWDLD

Model’s top convictions

91%

Over 1.5 goals

89%

PSV Eindhoven or draw

77%

Over 2.5 goals

Fairly pricedToo extreme an outsider (fair 0.06).

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
PSV EindhovenWin probability
74.8%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals91.4%High probabilityPays @ 1.09
PSV Eindhoven or draw89.3%High probabilityPays @ 1.12
Over 2.5 goals76.7%Strong chancePays @ 1.30

Model read

▾

PSV Eindhoven go into this Eredivisie meeting with Sparta Rotterdam on 13 September 2026 as clear favourites; our model has them at 75%. The market is more convinced than we are, pricing PSV Eindhoven at 82%. Caution noted. The goals profile is lively: Over 2.5 sits at 77% with both teams to score at 63%. Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 5 wins for PSV Eindhoven, 0 draws and 0 for Sparta Rotterdam, averaging 4.4 goals a game. Recent form reads W5 D1 L0 for PSV Eindhoven against W1 D2 L3 for Sparta Rotterdam. Verdict: no bet. Too extreme an outsider (fair 0.06).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 11.5 corners39.3%@ 2.54
Medium risk

Over 9.5 corners57.8%@ 1.73
Over 10.5 corners48.3%@ 2.07
Random finds

2-1 correct score8.3%@ 12.00
3-1 correct score8.2%@ 12.22
other correct score8.0%@ 12.45

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

PSV Eindhoven

74.8%-7.3%

Draw

14.5%+2.8%

Rotterdam

10.7%+4.5%

ModelMarket

too extreme an outsider (fair 0.06)

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.591.4%

High probability

Over 2.576.7%

Strong chance

BTTS · Yes63.1%

Strong chance

Corners markets

Over 8.567.3%

Strong chance

Over 9.557.8%

Good chance

Over 10.548.3%

Reasonable chance

Over 11.539.3%

Toss-up

Most cornersPSV Eindhoven61.1%Sparta Rotterdam29.7%

Shots markets

Over 22.573.8%

Strong chance

Over 24.563.6%

Strong chance

Over 26.552.6%

Good chance

Over 28.541.6%

Toss-up

Recent shot volume

PSV Eindhoven20.2 taken9.7 faced
Sparta Rotterdam14.7 taken15.2 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.591.4%2.576.7%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 2.576.7%

Discipline: Fairly priced. Too extreme an outsider (fair 0.06).

Form & head-to-head

PSV EindhovenDWWWW
Sparta RotterdamLWDLD

Last 5 meetings: PSV Eindhoven 5 · 0 draws · Sparta Rotterdam 0 · 4.4 goals/game.

2026-04-11Sparta Rotterdam 0-2 PSV Eindhoven
2025-08-09PSV Eindhoven 6-1 Sparta Rotterdam
2025-05-18Sparta Rotterdam 1-3 PSV Eindhoven
2024-10-05PSV Eindhoven 2-1 Sparta Rotterdam
2024-05-05PSV Eindhoven 4-2 Sparta Rotterdam

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

PSV EindhovenSparta Rotterdam
League position#2 of 18#11 of 18
Record W-D-L4-1-01-2-2
Current streakW4D1
Points per game2.601.00
Record, home vs away1-1-01-0-1
Goals scored per game3.601.80
Goals conceded per game1.201.80
1st half goals per game1.600.60
2nd half goals per game2.001.20
Corners won per game7.86.8
Cards per game1.41.0
Fouls per game8.611.4
Red cards this season00
Shots per game21.614.2
Shots faced per game8.015.0
Shots on target per game9.04.8
Over 2.5 rate

100.0%80.0%

BTTS rate

100.0%80.0%

Clean sheets

0.0%0.0%

Rates this season:PSV EindhovenSparta Rotterdam

League averages this season: 4.02 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 84% · BTTS in 77%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
PSV Eindhoven win1.181.34
Draw7.506.90
Sparta Rotterdam win13.009.35
Over 2.5 goals1.201.30
Under 2.5 goals4.334.29

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

PSV Eindhoven win1.34
Draw6.88
Sparta Rotterdam win9.35
Both teams to score1.59

Goals

Over 1.5 goals1.09
Over 2.5 goals1.30
Over 3.5 goals1.74
Over 4.5 goals2.64
PSV Eindhoven most1.34
Sparta Rotterdam most9.35

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.23
Over 8.5 corners1.39
Over 9.5 corners1.63
Over 10.5 corners2.00
PSV Eindhoven most1.63
Sparta Rotterdam most3.36

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.66
Over 3.5 cards2.62
Over 4.5 cards4.80
Over 5.5 cards10.06
PSV Eindhoven most3.43
Sparta Rotterdam most2.09

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.16
Over 7.5 SoT1.27
Over 8.5 SoT1.45
Over 9.5 SoT1.70
PSV Eindhoven most1.61
Sparta Rotterdam most3.56

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.36
Over 24.5 shots1.57
Over 26.5 shots1.90
Over 28.5 shots2.41
PSV Eindhoven most1.56
Sparta Rotterdam most3.26

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls2.48
Over 22.5 fouls3.83
Over 24.5 fouls6.50
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 73.8% Over 24.5 63.6% Over 26.5 52.6% Over 28.5 41.6%
Most: PSV Eindhoven 64.2% Most: Sparta Rotterdam 30.7%
PSV Eindhoven Over 13.2 60.4% Sparta Rotterdam Over 13.2 35.9%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 86.3% Over 7.5 78.5% Over 8.5 69.1% Over 9.5 58.9%
Most: PSV Eindhoven 62.1% Most: Sparta Rotterdam 28.1%
PSV Eindhoven Over 4.2 68.7% Sparta Rotterdam Over 4.2 44.7%

Cards

Over 2.5 60.3% Over 3.5 38.1% Over 4.5 20.8%
Most: PSV Eindhoven 29.1% Most: Sparta Rotterdam 47.8%
PSV Eindhoven Over 1.8 38.8% Sparta Rotterdam Over 1.8 53.0%

Clean sheet & win to nil

PSV Eindhoven clean sheet 31.0%
Sparta Rotterdam clean sheet 5.3%
PSV Eindhoven win to nil 29.0%
Sparta Rotterdam win to nil 3.2%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 74.8% draw 14.5% away 10.7%
double_chance
1X 89.3% 12 85.5% X2 25.2%
dnb
home 87.5% away 12.5%
btts
yes 63.1% no 36.9%
clean_sheet
home 33.7% away 5.3%
win_to_nil
home 31.7% away 3.2%
winning_margin
home_by_1 19.1% home_by_2 19.9% home_by_3plus 35.7%
away_by_1 6.9% away_by_2 2.7% away_by_3plus 1.1%
correct_score
0-0 2.1% 0-1 1.7% 0-2 1.1%
0-3 0.4% 0-4 0.1% 0-5 0.0%
1-0 4.9% 1-1 6.0% 1-2 3.1%
1-3 1.1% 1-4 0.3% 1-5 0.1%
2-0 7.7% 2-1 8.3% 2-2 4.5%
2-3 1.7% 2-4 0.4% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 7.5% 3-1 8.2% 3-2 4.5%
3-3 1.6% 3-4 0.4% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 5.6% 4-1 6.0% 4-2 3.3%
4-3 1.2% 4-4 0.3% 4-5 0.1%
5-0 3.3% 5-1 3.6% 5-2 1.9%
5-3 0.7% 5-4 0.2% 5-5 0.0%
other 8.0%
likeliest_score
h 200.0% a 100.0% p 8.3%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 97.9% under_0.5 2.1% over_1.5 91.4%
under_1.5 8.6% over_2.5 76.7% under_2.5 23.3%
over_3.5 57.4% under_3.5 42.7% over_4.5 37.8%
under_4.5 62.2% over_5.5 22.1% under_5.5 77.9%
odd_even
odd 49.4% even 50.6%
team_home
over_0.5 94.7% under_0.5 5.3% over_1.5 79.2%
under_1.5 20.8% over_2.5 56.5% under_2.5 43.5%
team_away
over_0.5 66.3% under_0.5 33.7% over_1.5 29.6%
under_1.5 70.4% over_2.5 9.7% under_2.5 90.3%
most
home 74.8% draw 14.5% away 10.7%
handicap
home_-2.5 35.7% away_+2.5 64.3% home_-1.5 55.7%
away_+1.5 44.3% home_-0.5 74.8% away_+0.5 25.2%
home_+0.5 89.3% away_-0.5 10.7% home_+1.5 96.2%
away_-1.5 3.8% home_+2.5 99.0% away_-2.5 1.1%
total_exact
exact_0 2.1% exact_1 6.6% exact_2 14.7%
exact_3 19.3% exact_4 19.5% exact_5 15.8%
exact_6 10.6% exact_7plus 11.5%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 53.6% draw 31.6% away 14.8%
total
over_0.5 80.6% under_0.5 19.4% over_1.5 48.8%
under_1.5 51.2% over_2.5 22.7% under_2.5 77.3%
btts
yes 25.8% no 74.2%
total_exact
exact_0 19.4% exact_1 31.8% exact_2 26.1%
exact_3 14.3% exact_4plus 8.4%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 69.1% draw 20.6% away 10.4%
total
over_0.5 91.5% under_0.5 8.5% over_1.5 70.4%
under_1.5 29.6% over_2.5 44.6% under_2.5 55.4%
btts
yes 36.9% no 63.1%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 50.1% H/D 2.7% H/A 0.8%
D/H 21.8% D/D 6.5% D/A 3.3%
A/H 5.6% A/D 3.7% A/A 5.5%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 81.6% under_7.5 18.4% over_8.5 72.1%
under_8.5 27.9% over_9.5 61.3% under_9.5 38.7%
over_10.5 50.0% under_10.5 50.0% over_11.5 39.1%
under_11.5 60.9% over_12.5 29.3% under_12.5 70.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 81.5% under_3.5 18.5% over_4.5 69.3%
under_4.5 30.7% over_5.5 55.8% under_5.5 44.2%
team_away
over_3.5 61.7% under_3.5 38.3% over_4.5 45.4%
under_4.5 54.6% over_5.5 31.0% under_5.5 69.0%
most
home 61.3% draw 8.9% away 29.7%
handicap
home_-3.5 33.1% away_+3.5 66.9% home_-1.5 51.8%
away_+1.5 48.2% home_-0.5 61.3% away_+0.5 38.7%
home_+0.5 70.3% away_-0.5 29.7% home_+1.5 78.1%
away_-1.5 21.9% home_+3.5 89.6% away_-3.5 10.4%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 73.8% under_22.5 26.2% over_24.5 63.6%
under_24.5 36.4% over_26.5 52.6% under_26.5 47.4%
over_28.5 41.6% under_28.5 58.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 80.2% under_10.5 19.9% over_12.5 67.4%
under_12.5 32.6% over_14.5 53.2% under_14.5 46.8%
team_away
over_10.5 59.8% under_10.5 40.2% over_12.5 43.4%
under_12.5 56.6% over_14.5 29.1% under_14.5 70.9%
most
home 64.2% draw 5.1% away 30.7%
handicap
home_-4.5 42.1% away_+4.5 57.9% home_-2.5 53.3%
away_+2.5 46.7% home_-0.5 64.2% away_+0.5 35.8%
home_+0.5 69.3% away_-0.5 30.7% home_+2.5 78.4%
away_-2.5 21.6% home_+4.5 85.6% away_-4.5 14.4%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 86.3% under_6.5 13.7% over_7.5 78.5%
under_7.5 21.5% over_8.5 69.1% under_8.5 30.9%
over_9.5 58.9% under_9.5 41.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 81.1% under_3.5 18.9% over_4.5 68.7%
under_4.5 31.3% over_5.5 55.0% under_5.5 45.0%
team_away
over_3.5 61.5% under_3.5 38.5% over_4.5 44.7%
under_4.5 55.3% over_5.5 30.2% under_5.5 69.8%
most
home 62.1% draw 9.8% away 28.1%
handicap
home_-2.5 41.0% away_+2.5 59.0% home_-0.5 62.1%
away_+0.5 37.9% home_+0.5 71.9% away_-0.5 28.1%
home_+2.5 86.9% away_-2.5 13.1%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 60.3% under_2.5 39.7% over_3.5 38.2%
under_3.5 61.9% over_4.5 20.8% under_4.5 79.2%
over_5.5 9.9% under_5.5 90.1%
odd_even
odd 49.9% even 50.1%
team_home
over_1.5 38.8% under_1.5 61.2% over_2.5 15.5%
under_2.5 84.6%
team_away
over_1.5 53.0% under_1.5 47.0% over_2.5 26.6%
under_2.5 73.4%
most
home 29.2% draw 23.0% away 47.8%
handicap
home_-1.5 12.8% away_+1.5 87.2% home_-0.5 29.2%
away_+0.5 70.9% home_+0.5 52.2% away_-0.5 47.8%
home_+1.5 73.8% away_-1.5 26.2%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 40.3% under_20.5 59.7% over_22.5 26.1%
under_22.5 73.9% over_24.5 15.4% under_24.5 84.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 49.7% under_9.5 50.3% over_11.5 28.4%
under_11.5 71.6% over_13.5 13.7% under_13.5 86.3%
team_away
over_9.5 50.9% under_9.5 49.1% over_11.5 29.5%
under_11.5 70.5% over_13.5 14.4% under_13.5 85.6%
most
home 45.0% draw 8.3% away 46.7%
handicap
home_-3.5 22.7% away_+3.5 77.3% home_-0.5 45.0%
away_+0.5 55.0% home_+2.5 69.1% away_-2.5 30.9%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 7.4% no 92.6%
home
yes 3.9% no 96.2%
away
yes 3.7% no 96.3%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: PSV Eindhoven predictions · Sparta Rotterdam predictions · Eredivisie

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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EredivisiePSV EindhovenSparta RotterdamTrack record