ChampionshipWest Brom vs QPR Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 45.8%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 67.5% for over 2.5 to 13.9% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 45.8%. Between the two sides, QPR are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 45.2%, with a level count at 22.1%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 67.5% | 32.5% |
| 3.5 cards | 45.8% | 54.2% |
| 4.5 cards | 27.0% | 73.0% |
| 5.5 cards | 13.9% | 86.1% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
47.0%
21.3%
56.4%
29.4%
Card handicap
| West Brom line | West Brom | QPR |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 15.7% | 84.3% |
| -0.5 | 32.7% | 67.3% |
| +0.5 | 54.8% | 45.2% |
| +1.5 | 75.0% | 25.0% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 52.0% | 48.0% |
| 22.5 fouls | 36.3% | 63.7% |
| 24.5 fouls | 23.0% | 77.0% |
This season (2026/27)
2.5West Brom cards per game9.7West Brom fouls per game1.2QPR cards per game8.0QPR fouls per gameCard markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for West Brom vs QPR. Slightly more cards are projected for QPR for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
45.8%Over 3.5 cards5.9%Any red card47.0%West Brom over 1.5 cards56.4%QPR over 1.5 cards36.3%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, West Brom over 1.5 cards sits at 47.0% and QPR at 56.4%. A red card for either side is rated at 5.9% (West Brom 4.1%, QPR 1.9%). This season West Brom have averaged 2.5 cards a game and QPR 1.2.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in West Brom vs QPR?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 45.8% for West Brom vs QPR.
Will there be a red card in West Brom vs QPR?
The model rates a red card for either side at 5.9%.
Which team will pick up more cards in West Brom vs QPR?
The model rates QPR to pick up more cards at 45.2%, with a level count at 22.1%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,145 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.6% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Championship, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.