ChampionshipWest Brom vs QPR Double Chance
Part of a bigger picture: see the full match page, where this comes from.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Home or Draw at 72.7%, its strongest read on the Double Chance market. For context, West Brom are favoured at 44.3%, a competitive game that shapes how this market plays out. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 3.2 goals a game. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Double Chance
Draw no bet
Draw no bet: the draw is taken out and the remaining probability is split between the two sides.
Winning margin
| Margin | Probability |
|---|---|
| West Brom by 1 | 23.0% |
| West Brom by 2 | 13.4% |
| West Brom by 3+ | 7.9% |
| QPR by 1 | 16.9% |
| QPR by 2 | 7.4% |
| QPR by 3+ | 2.9% |
| Draw | 28.4% |
Goal handicap
| West Brom line | West Brom | QPR |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 21.3% | 78.6% |
| -0.5 | 44.3% | 55.7% |
| +0.5 | 72.8% | 27.2% |
| +1.5 | 89.7% | 10.3% |
This season (2026/27)
1.5West Brom goals scored per game1.0West Brom goals conceded per game1.2QPR goals scored per game0.7QPR goals conceded per gameTwo of three outcomes covered, lower odds, higher strike rate. The highest-probability cover is West Brom or draw on the model numbers.
In-depth analysis
48.5%Both Teams to Score42.9%Over 2.5 goalsFor context, West Brom are favoured at 44.3%. We lean on calibration, not the favourite tag.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: West Brom 3 · 1 draws · QPR 1 · 3.2 goals/game.
FAQ
What is the most likely double chance in West Brom vs QPR?
Home or Draw is the highest-probability double chance for West Brom vs QPR at 72.7%.
What is the draw no bet probability in West Brom vs QPR?
With the draw taken out, the model rates West Brom at 61.9% and QPR at 38.1%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Double Chance accuracy
How our Double Chance calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 39,986 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Double Chance actually happened 73.4% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 11 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Double Chance calls
The model’s most recent graded Double Chance predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Championship, Double Chance
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.